Less than two months remain in the 2016 Major League Baseball season.
That’s not that many games left on the calendar.
While teams are either already turning to 2017 or prepping for a (hopefully) lengthy playoff run, writers are beginning to think about the most relevant late-season narratives. In that same vein, I’ve decided to delve into the season-long statistics of every lineup regular in both the American and National Leagues, focusing particularly on the defensive performance of every notable player. Why?
Gold, baby.
Yep, I’m already intrigued by the Gold Glove races across the MLB. You see, if one watches enough Kevin Kiermaier, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Kevin Pillar, one begins to salivate at the thought of spectacular defensive plays.
In baseball, defense is an incredibly underrated part of the game. While everyone focuses on offense and pitching, positional defense still plays an extremely important role in the successes and failures of MLB teams.
Want an example? The Royals, as a team, need 29 more defensive runs saved this season to equal their 2015 total. In their World Series season, the Royals led the American League in the statistic and subsequently found themselves winning an improbable amount of games. In 2016, they’ve taken a noticeable step back around the diamond, and subsequently there’s been a noted decline in Kansas City wins.
Again, a lot of factors impact winning and losing in baseball, but strong defensive teams are still at an obvious advantage. And this means that standout defenders bring a quietly huge impact to their teams (and vice-versa for bad defenders). So let’s take a look at which players have been most impactful with the glove and who might find themselves rewarded for their efforts in another few months.
Gold Glove Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel (AL) & Zack Greinke (NL)
Yeah, these aren’t very surprising.
Winners of back-to-back Gold Gloves over the last two seasons, Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke are the two pitchers most known for helping themselves out in the field. And 2016 has been no different thus far.
Keuchel is currently tied among qualified American League pitchers in DRS (defensive runs saved), with only Masahiro Tanaka judged as equally valuable at preventing runs in the field. However, Keuchel has yet to make a fielding error, while Tanaka does have a pesky miscue on his record this season. Keuchel has also only allowed two stolen bases while on the mound, compared to the six allowed by Tanaka. Keuchel has a lot of pressure for the Gold Glove this season, but he’s currently in the driver’s seat for his third straight award. He may have relatively poor pitching numbers in 2016, but you can’t blame the reigning AL Cy Young winner’s defense for the decline.
Now Greinke earns another Gold Glove mostly on reputation alone. While he’s again posting stellar defensive numbers for his new team, he has committed one error, a blemish on his otherwise stellar record. Allowing just three stolen bases and owning five DRS, Greinke’s numbers are still quite good, but other contenders for the award (Michael Wacha and Bartolo Colon) have equally impressed on defense this season.
Colon leads all pitchers in baseball in DRS with six this year, but has also allowed four stolen bases with one error. Meanwhile, Wacha has given up six stolen bases and committed one error, but also owns five DRS and has the highest fielding percentage of the three. There’s an argument to be made for all three pitchers in the NL Gold Glove race, but Greinke is as good as any and earns the award primarily on track record at this point.
Gold Glove Catchers: Salvador Perez (AL) & Buster Posey (NL)
Salvador Perez is running away with the Gold Glove and everyone else is just a speck in the rear view mirror.
Seriously, Salvy has been the best defensive catcher in baseball this season, hands down. He has just three errors and is just a solitary percentage point off the AL fielding percentage lead among catchers. However, the more advanced statistics tell the real story of Perez’s dominance.
Perez has 10 DRS, tops among AL catchers by 4 whole runs! His defensive rating is also nearly 4 points higher than the nearest contender. Oh yeah, and he’s thrown out 31 baserunners this season, while allowing only 27 stolen bases (honestly, why are teams still running on Salvy?). Yeah, Perez is gonna win his fourth straight Gold Glove. Honestly, he’s getting very close to peak-Yadier Molina territory and that’s insane.
Oh yeah, and Buster Posey should finally get his first Gold Glove this season. It’s ridiculous he wasn’t the NL winner of the award last year, especially considering he took home the Fielding Bible award for best defensive catcher in all of baseball. Yet somehow, he lost the Gold Glove to Molina again and is still without the one piece of hardware left for the all-world backstop.
I won’t knock Yadier Molina, even though the advanced statistics might justify declaring him a below-average defender at this stage of his career (again, not what I’m saying). Instead, I wish simply to acknowledge that Posey is not only the best offensive catcher, but also the best defender behind the plate (at least in the NL). He’s allowed the fewest stolen bases among catchers with at least 500 innings this season. He also has just two errors, only bested by Molina’s measly one defensive miscue.
Posey is second in DRS among NL catchers (behind Derek Norris) and second in defensive rating (behind J.T. Realmuto). While Posey is not the best according to any one metric, he’s the only NL catcher consistently grading out as a top three defender by any advanced (or standard) statistic. It’s time to give Posey the golden glove to go with his many silver bats.
Gold Glove First Basemen: Miguel Cabrera (AL) & Wil Myers (NL)
*Hides from outraged, pitchfork-wielding Royals fans*
I really wish I could explain how Eric Hosmer has fallen off so sharply on the defensive end. His errors are up, his DRS total is among the lowest among AL first basemen, and his UZR (ultimate zone rating) is also well behind league average. As a result of Hosmer’s unbelievable decline, the American League Gold Glove race at first base is remarkably muddled.
Chris Davis of the Orioles has a strong case from an advanced metrics perspective, but he’s amassed a bunch of errors that reflect poorly on his performance. The Rangers’ Mitch Moreland has been consistently great on defense by almost any measure, but he also hasn’t played the innings befitting of a “regular” first baseman. Joe Mauer is solid defensively for the Twins, but doesn’t stand out either.
Therefore, Miguel Cabrera is in the driver’s seat for his first Gold Glove by default. UZR grades Miggy as elite, while DRS says he’s above average as well. He does have 4 errors in 2016, dragging down his fielding percentage, but that isn’t a damning total. Honestly, he’s practically equaled defensively by multiple first baseman and I’m really giving him the award because he’s the best offensive player among the contenders and I felt like being that horrible person that takes offense into account when deciding Gold Glove winners.
On the flip side, Wil Myers is an absolute stud defensively now that he’s taken over first base duties in San Diego full-time. Myers has just one error all year and owns a very respectable 5 DRS. More importantly, he’s blowing away every other NL first baseman in UZR (5.4 points higher than the next closest contender). Myers also owns the only positive defensive rating among regular NL first basemen. The defensive performance of Wil Myers is incredible (especially considering this is his first season as a full-time first baseman) and his first Gold Glove is well within reach.
Gold Glove Second Basemen: Dustin Pedroia (AL) & Neil Walker (NL)
The second base Gold Glove race, in both leagues, is a textbook example of differing baseball ideologies. By traditional statistics, neither Pedroia nor Walker would be considered favorites for the award. Instead, Robinson Cano would be cemented as the AL favorite and Ben Zobrist would be running away with the NL hardware.
However, I always put more weight behind nuanced statistics and as a result look at the second base Gold Glove races in a much different light than the more old-fashioned in the industry. The well-regarded and notable advanced stats both shine a negative light on Zobrist and Cano. Or rather, they highlight the decidedly average nature of their true defensive talents, with neither grading as particularly bad or good.
Meanwhile, advanced statistics indicate that Neil Walker is running away with the NL Gold Glove, owning a sizable advantage in UZR and defensive rating compared to his peers. Trust me, ask any Mets fan and they’ll be terribly unimpressed with Walker’s defense, but he’s sneakily been very good.
While Neil Walker’s newfound defensive excellent comes as a bit of a shock, the American League advanced statistics leader is a four-time Gold Glove winner and regarded as one of the best overall defenders in all of baseball (in fact, I highlighted his defensive excellence earlier this summer here). Yep, Dustin Pedroia is still far-and-away the best defensive second baseman in the American League, and he’s actually been healthy enough to reclaim his hardware this season. Glad to have you back, extraordinary defensive wizard Pedroia!
Gold Glove Shortstops: Francisco Lindor (AL) & Brandon Crawford (NL)
Remember when Andrelton Simmons’ move to the American League was going to ruin a bunch of shortstops’ chances at the Gold Glove for the next few years? Yeah, that hasn’t happened yet.
While Simmons is having a fine defensive season, he’s missed a chunk of time and struggled to really find his groove. As a result, the AL Gold Glove race at shortstop has opened up and the Indians’ new superstar has ran with the opportunity. Lindor is third in fielding percentage among qualified AL shortstops, has the fourth fewest errors in the group, and grades at the top of every advanced statistic. Jose Iglesias has been almost as stellar for Detroit, but he’s a notch behind Lindor in DRS and UZR and clearly owns the lower profile of the two (probably because Iglesias is a pretty average hitter). So Lindor is ahead of the pack right now, but he better remain flawless because Andrelton Simmons is hot on his tail.
In the National League it’s cut-and-dry. Brandon Crawford is the best defensive shortstop in the game.
Okay, he does have an abnormally high number of errors (10) this year, but the advanced statistics adore his glove work and the eye test doesn’t hurt, either. Brandon Crawford is a defensive savant and with Simmons in the American League, it’s going to be awfully difficult to pry the Gold Glove away from Crawford’s cold, soft, wicked dextrous hands.
Gold Glove Third Basemen: Manny Machado (AL) & Nolan Arenado (NL)
This one is pretty obvious in both leagues. I’ll keep it short, in that case.
Among American League third basemen, Manny Machado trails only Adrian Beltre in defensive runs saved at the hot corner. The caveat? Machado has spent a bunch of time at shortstop filling in for the injured J.J. Hardy this season. Therefore, looking at Machado’s total DRS he pulls even with Beltre. His UZR is also far and away the best in the American League among third basemen. Oh yeah, and he’s made just one error playing third base this season. He’s so good it should be against the rules.
In the case of Arenado it becomes a little more muddled, as the advanced statistics actually favor the Dodgers’ Justin Turner this season (I’m legitimately shocked). While I always put faith into advanced statistics and analytics, even I can’t really make the case for anyone but Arenado. He’s leading NL third basemen in fielding percentage and DRS this season. So what if his UZR and defensive rating are merely “good” instead of “OMG HE’S A GOD”? Watch Nolan Arenado play and it becomes awfully hard to argue against his status as an elite defender at the hot corner. Once he reigns in the errors (which aren’t really that bad anyway) he’ll easily be a slam dunk for the Gold Glove.
Gold Glove Left Fielders: Colby Rasmus (AL) & Adam Duvall (NL)
Jeez, another obvious one. Do I even need to say anything here?
What’s that?
I do need to elaborate?
Alright…
I’ll start with a very bold declaration: Left field is one of the shallowest positions in baseball. There’s very few true superstars manning left field nowadays, and as a result the window has opened for less-heralded players to make a play for a Gold Glove.
(Also, yes I clearly hate the Royals. I know Alex Gordon is a great defender. Nobody is trying to deny that fact. But he’s missed time and he’s showing ever-so-slight signs of defensive decline. I’m just going to come out and say it: he’s overrated.)
Colby Rasmus is a terrific defender who takes a lot of heat because he’s not nearly the offensive talent everyone hoped he would become. Rasmus is a fairly average player from an eye-test standpoint. However, he’s yet to make an error in left field this season and has racked up an impressive 11 DRS while easily pacing AL left fielders in UZR and defensive rating.
And what makes his DRS and UZR totals more impressive? He’s done it in just 588.1 innings. To put that in context, Justin Upton has played 300 more innings in left field than Colby Rasmus yet Upton has exactly 0 DRS. Sure, his immaculate fielding percentage has probably been helped by playing fewer innings, but the advanced statistics indicate that he’s been nothing short of spectacular in left field. Gordon still has time to catch up, but right now Rasmus should be a no-brainer for the AL Gold Glove.
Ah yes, Adam Duvall.
I’ll be the first to admit this selection is surprising. Before delving into the statistics, I would’ve assumed athletic, speedy left fielders like Starling Marte or Christian Yelich would be leading the National League pack. And while both have been pretty good defensively, neither comes close to the impact of Adam Duvall in left field upon further inspection.
Duvall’s kept the errors in check (just four), while racking up DRS (13) and UZR (7.1), both of which easily lead the National League. Sure, you could look at Matt Holliday’s immaculate fielding percentage and make a case for the 36 year-old Cardinal. But come on, even St. Louis fans aren’t campaigning for a guy based off one statistic that doesn’t mean all that much. No, aggregating the entirety of available data indicates that Duvall owns strongest case for the NL Gold Glove, at least for the time being.
(P.S. I don’t believe either of these players stand a real chance of winning simply because they’re not remotely marquee talents and that will stupidly impact some voters)
Gold Glove Center Fielders: Kevin Pillar (AL) & Billy Hamilton (NL)
One of these races is going to be exhilarating down the stretch and filled with highlights from numerous stand-out defenders.
The other is the National League race.
It’s not so much that Billy Hamilton is running away with the award (though, if anyone could literally steal the award and run fast enough to avoid security, Billy Hamilton’s the obvious choice), it’s more that I don’t envision the closest contenders making any notable strides to close the gap. Billy Hamilton’s speed alone makes him a terrific defender and the two center fielders with the best statistical cases to compete for the award are the Braves’ Ender Inciarte and the Brewers’ Kirk Niewenhuis. Neither are even guaranteed regular playing time down the stretch. Ergo, Billy Hamilton wins because he should keep up his stellar play in a secured role and continue to expand his modest lead in DRS and UZR.
Now, the American League is one hell of a race.
Let’s list some of the regular center fielders in the AL: Mike Trout, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Kiermaier, Lorenzo Cain, Byron Buxton (yes, he’s back in Triple A), Jacoby Ellsbury, and, last but not remotely close to least, Kevin Pillar.
That’s a lot of talent roaming center field in the Junior Circuit. Honestly, any one of those players could win the Gold Glove and I wouldn’t make much of a fuss. Still, I’m taking Pillar right now because of his extreme UZR discrepancy. He’s at or near the top of every important defensive statistic right now (fielding percentage, DRS, etc.), but his UZR lead is unbelievable. Lorenzo Cain is 2nd in the AL in UZR with a really good 9.6 rating. Kevin Pillar is sitting at 21.1. If I wanted too, I could easily make the case for Pillar as the best defender not just in center field, but in the entirety of the American League.
Spontaneous executive decision: I’m watching Kevin Pillar defensive highlights after I finish this.
Gold Glove Right Fielders: Adam Eaton (AL) & Jason Heyward (NL)
Right field is not a close race at the moment in either league.
Adam Eaton is the right field version of 2016 Kevin Pillar. He’s at the top of every defensive statistic and his UZR is off the charts (like, higher than Pillar off-the-charts). I mean, Eaton is having a down year offensively and he’s still owner of the eighth best WAR in the entire American League. His defense has been absolutely incredible and deserves to be recognized, even if we’re minimizing the stellar defensive efforts of Mookie Betts and George Springer in the process. Because Adam Eaton is that much better than the competition. If only we could say the same about the White Sox…
Oh yeah, speaking of right fielders that are having really disappointing offensive seasons…
Jason Heyward is not worth the contract he was awarded this offseason. He is overpaid and it’s not really debatable. However, if offensive statistics were ignored completely and defense became the only thing that mattered in baseball, Jason Heyward would be the National League MVP in a landslide.
Unfortunately for J-Hey that’s not the case.
Nevertheless, Jason Heyward is practically lapping the field this year for the Gold Glove. His DRS and defensive rating are both nearly double the next closest contender. And if you’re fatigued from dealing with advanced statistics, look at the old fashioned numbers. Jason Heyward hasn’t made an error for the Cubs this season.
If I were to build the perfect right fielder, it would look an awful lot like Heyward (though, I’d probably want Mookie Betts or Bryce Harper’s bat). He should win his fourth Gold Glove with ease.
So that’s where the Gold Glove races are as we head into the home stretch. Now I’m off to watch those Kevin Pillar highlights I mentioned earlier.
(All statistics referenced courtesy of fangraphs.com)
Unintentional Talk 