With the end of the MLB season looming, maybe it’s time to start assessing Gold Glove candidates. After all, we want those gloves to fit just right.
Less than two months remain in the 2016 Major League Baseball season.
That’s not that many games left on the calendar.
While teams are either already turning to 2017 or prepping for a (hopefully) lengthy playoff run, writers are beginning to think about the most relevant late-season narratives. In that same vein, I’ve decided to delve into the season-long statistics of every lineup regular in both the American and National Leagues, focusing particularly on the defensive performance of every notable player. Why?
Gold, baby.
Yep, I’m already intrigued by the Gold Glove races across the MLB. You see, if one watches enough Kevin Kiermaier, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Kevin Pillar, one begins to salivate at the thought of spectacular defensive plays.
In baseball, defense is an incredibly underrated part of the game. While everyone focuses on offense and pitching, positional defense still plays an extremely important role in the successes and failures of MLB teams.
Want an example? The Royals, as a team, need 29 more defensive runs saved this season to equal their 2015 total. In their World Series season, the Royals led the American League in the statistic and subsequently found themselves winning an improbable amount of games. In 2016, they’ve taken a noticeable step back around the diamond, and subsequently there’s been a noted decline in Kansas City wins.
Again, a lot of factors impact winning and losing in baseball, but strong defensive teams are still at an obvious advantage. And this means that standout defenders bring a quietly huge impact to their teams (and vice-versa for bad defenders). So let’s take a look at which players have been most impactful with the glove and who might find themselves rewarded for their efforts in another few months.
Winners of back-to-back Gold Gloves over the last two seasons, Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke are the two pitchers most known for helping themselves out in the field. And 2016 has been no different thus far.
Keuchel is currently tied among qualified American League pitchers in DRS (defensive runs saved), with only Masahiro Tanaka judged as equally valuable at preventing runs in the field. However, Keuchel has yet to make a fielding error, while Tanaka does have a pesky miscue on his record this season. Keuchel has also only allowed two stolen bases while on the mound, compared to the six allowed by Tanaka. Keuchel has a lot of pressure for the Gold Glove this season, but he’s currently in the driver’s seat for his third straight award. He may have relatively poor pitching numbers in 2016, but you can’t blame the reigning AL Cy Young winner’s defense for the decline.
Dallas Keuchel should play soccer, BTW
Now Greinke earns another Gold Glove mostly on reputation alone. While he’s again posting stellar defensive numbers for his new team, he has committed one error, a blemish on his otherwise stellar record. Allowing just three stolen bases and owning five DRS, Greinke’s numbers are still quite good, but other contenders for the award (Michael Wacha and Bartolo Colon) have equally impressed on defense this season.
Colon leads all pitchers in baseball in DRS with six this year, but has also allowed four stolen bases with one error. Meanwhile, Wacha has given up six stolen bases and committed one error, but also owns five DRS and has the highest fielding percentage of the three. There’s an argument to be made for all three pitchers in the NL Gold Glove race, but Greinke is as good as any and earns the award primarily on track record at this point.
Gold Glove Catchers: Salvador Perez (AL) & Buster Posey (NL)
Salvador Perez is running away with the Gold Glove and everyone else is just a speck in the rear view mirror.
Seriously, Salvy has been the best defensive catcher in baseball this season, hands down. He has just three errors and is just a solitary percentage point off the AL fielding percentage lead among catchers. However, the more advanced statistics tell the real story of Perez’s dominance.
Perez has 10 DRS, tops among AL catchers by 4 whole runs! His defensive rating is also nearly 4 points higher than the nearest contender. Oh yeah, and he’s thrown out 31 baserunners this season, while allowing only 27 stolen bases (honestly, why are teams still running on Salvy?). Yeah, Perez is gonna win his fourth straight Gold Glove. Honestly, he’s getting very close to peak-Yadier Molina territory and that’s insane.
Oh yeah, and Buster Posey should finally get his first Gold Glove this season. It’s ridiculous he wasn’t the NL winner of the award last year, especially considering he took home the Fielding Bible award for best defensive catcher in all of baseball. Yet somehow, he lost the Gold Glove to Molina again and is still without the one piece of hardware left for the all-world backstop.
How many catchers have done that, huh?
I won’t knock Yadier Molina, even though the advanced statistics might justify declaring him a below-average defender at this stage of his career (again, not what I’m saying). Instead, I wish simply to acknowledge that Posey is not only the best offensive catcher, but also the best defender behind the plate (at least in the NL). He’s allowed the fewest stolen bases among catchers with at least 500 innings this season. He also has just two errors, only bested by Molina’s measly one defensive miscue.
Posey is second in DRS among NL catchers (behind Derek Norris) and second in defensive rating (behind J.T. Realmuto). While Posey is not the best according to any one metric, he’s the only NL catcher consistently grading out as a top three defender by any advanced (or standard) statistic. It’s time to give Posey the golden glove to go with his many silver bats.
Gold Glove First Basemen: Miguel Cabrera (AL) & Wil Myers (NL)
*Hides from outraged, pitchfork-wielding Royals fans*
I really wish I could explain how Eric Hosmer has fallen off so sharply on the defensive end. His errors are up, his DRS total is among the lowest among AL first basemen, and his UZR (ultimate zone rating) is also well behind league average. As a result of Hosmer’s unbelievable decline, the American League Gold Glove race at first base is remarkably muddled.
Chris Davis of the Orioles has a strong case from an advanced metrics perspective, but he’s amassed a bunch of errors that reflect poorly on his performance. The Rangers’ Mitch Moreland has been consistently great on defense by almost any measure, but he also hasn’t played the innings befitting of a “regular” first baseman. Joe Mauer is solid defensively for the Twins, but doesn’t stand out either.
Therefore, Miguel Cabrera is in the driver’s seat for his first Gold Glove by default. UZR grades Miggy as elite, while DRS says he’s above average as well. He does have 4 errors in 2016, dragging down his fielding percentage, but that isn’t a damning total. Honestly, he’s practically equaled defensively by multiple first baseman and I’m really giving him the award because he’s the best offensive player among the contenders and I felt like being that horrible person that takes offense into account when deciding Gold Glove winners.
On the flip side, Wil Myers is an absolute stud defensively now that he’s taken over first base duties in San Diego full-time. Myers has just one error all year and owns a very respectable 5 DRS. More importantly, he’s blowing away every other NL first baseman in UZR (5.4 points higher than the next closest contender). Myers also owns the only positive defensive rating among regular NL first basemen. The defensive performance of Wil Myers is incredible (especially considering this is his first season as a full-time first baseman) and his first Gold Glove is well within reach.
Gold Glove Second Basemen: Dustin Pedroia (AL) & Neil Walker (NL)
The second base Gold Glove race, in both leagues, is a textbook example of differing baseball ideologies. By traditional statistics, neither Pedroia nor Walker would be considered favorites for the award. Instead, Robinson Cano would be cemented as the AL favorite and Ben Zobrist would be running away with the NL hardware.
However, I always put more weight behind nuanced statistics and as a result look at the second base Gold Glove races in a much different light than the more old-fashioned in the industry. The well-regarded and notable advanced stats both shine a negative light on Zobrist and Cano. Or rather, they highlight the decidedly average nature of their true defensive talents, with neither grading as particularly bad or good.
Meanwhile, advanced statistics indicate that Neil Walker is running away with the NL Gold Glove, owning a sizable advantage in UZR and defensive rating compared to his peers. Trust me, ask any Mets fan and they’ll be terribly unimpressed with Walker’s defense, but he’s sneakily been very good.
While Neil Walker’s newfound defensive excellent comes as a bit of a shock, the American League advanced statistics leader is a four-time Gold Glove winner and regarded as one of the best overall defenders in all of baseball (in fact, I highlighted his defensive excellence earlier this summer here). Yep, Dustin Pedroia is still far-and-away the best defensive second baseman in the American League, and he’s actually been healthy enough to reclaim his hardware this season. Glad to have you back, extraordinary defensive wizard Pedroia!
Pedey got hops, too!
Gold Glove Shortstops: Francisco Lindor (AL) & Brandon Crawford (NL)
Remember when Andrelton Simmons’ move to the American League was going to ruin a bunch of shortstops’ chances at the Gold Glove for the next few years? Yeah, that hasn’t happened yet.
While Simmons is having a fine defensive season, he’s missed a chunk of time and struggled to really find his groove. As a result, the AL Gold Glove race at shortstop has opened up and the Indians’ new superstar has ran with the opportunity. Lindor is third in fielding percentage among qualified AL shortstops, has the fourth fewest errors in the group, and grades at the top of every advanced statistic. Jose Iglesias has been almost as stellar for Detroit, but he’s a notch behind Lindor in DRS and UZR and clearly owns the lower profile of the two (probably because Iglesias is a pretty average hitter). So Lindor is ahead of the pack right now, but he better remain flawless because Andrelton Simmons is hot on his tail.
In the National League it’s cut-and-dry. Brandon Crawford is the best defensive shortstop in the game.
Okay, he does have an abnormally high number of errors (10) this year, but the advanced statistics adore his glove work and the eye test doesn’t hurt, either. Brandon Crawford is a defensive savant and with Simmons in the American League, it’s going to be awfully difficult to pry the Gold Glove away from Crawford’s cold, soft, wicked dextrous hands.
This one is pretty obvious in both leagues. I’ll keep it short, in that case.
Among American League third basemen, Manny Machado trails only Adrian Beltre in defensive runs saved at the hot corner. The caveat? Machado has spent a bunch of time at shortstop filling in for the injured J.J. Hardy this season. Therefore, looking at Machado’s total DRS he pulls even with Beltre. His UZR is also far and away the best in the American League among third basemen. Oh yeah, and he’s made just one error playing third base this season. He’s so good it should be against the rules.
In the case of Arenado it becomes a little more muddled, as the advanced statistics actually favor the Dodgers’ Justin Turner this season (I’m legitimately shocked). While I always put faith into advanced statistics and analytics, even I can’t really make the case for anyone but Arenado. He’s leading NL third basemen in fielding percentage and DRS this season. So what if his UZR and defensive rating are merely “good” instead of “OMG HE’S A GOD”? Watch Nolan Arenado play and it becomes awfully hard to argue against his status as an elite defender at the hot corner. Once he reigns in the errors (which aren’t really that bad anyway) he’ll easily be a slam dunk for the Gold Glove.
Seriously, is Nolan Arenado human?
Gold Glove Left Fielders: Colby Rasmus (AL) & Adam Duvall (NL)
Jeez, another obvious one. Do I even need to say anything here?
What’s that?
I do need to elaborate?
Alright…
I’ll start with a very bold declaration: Left field is one of the shallowest positions in baseball. There’s very few true superstars manning left field nowadays, and as a result the window has opened for less-heralded players to make a play for a Gold Glove.
(Also, yes I clearly hate the Royals. I know Alex Gordon is a great defender. Nobody is trying to deny that fact. But he’s missed time and he’s showing ever-so-slight signs of defensive decline. I’m just going to come out and say it: he’s overrated.)
Colby Rasmus is a terrific defender who takes a lot of heat because he’s not nearly the offensive talent everyone hoped he would become. Rasmus is a fairly average player from an eye-test standpoint. However, he’s yet to make an error in left field this season and has racked up an impressive 11 DRS while easily pacing AL left fielders in UZR and defensive rating.
And what makes his DRS and UZR totals more impressive? He’s done it in just 588.1 innings. To put that in context, Justin Upton has played 300 more innings in left field than Colby Rasmus yet Upton has exactly 0 DRS. Sure, his immaculate fielding percentage has probably been helped by playing fewer innings, but the advanced statistics indicate that he’s been nothing short of spectacular in left field. Gordon still has time to catch up, but right now Rasmus should be a no-brainer for the AL Gold Glove.
Ah yes, Adam Duvall.
Pictured above, in case you have no idea who Adam Duvall is.
I’ll be the first to admit this selection is surprising. Before delving into the statistics, I would’ve assumed athletic, speedy left fielders like Starling Marte or Christian Yelich would be leading the National League pack. And while both have been pretty good defensively, neither comes close to the impact of Adam Duvall in left field upon further inspection.
Duvall’s kept the errors in check (just four), while racking up DRS (13) and UZR (7.1), both of which easily lead the National League. Sure, you could look at Matt Holliday’s immaculate fielding percentage and make a case for the 36 year-old Cardinal. But come on, even St. Louis fans aren’t campaigning for a guy based off one statistic that doesn’t mean all that much. No, aggregating the entirety of available data indicates that Duvall owns strongest case for the NL Gold Glove, at least for the time being.
(P.S. I don’t believe either of these players stand a real chance of winning simply because they’re not remotely marquee talents and that will stupidly impact some voters)
Gold Glove Center Fielders: Kevin Pillar (AL) & Billy Hamilton (NL)
One of these races is going to be exhilarating down the stretch and filled with highlights from numerous stand-out defenders.
The other is the National League race.
It’s not so much that Billy Hamilton is running away with the award (though, if anyone could literally steal the award and run fast enough to avoid security, Billy Hamilton’s the obvious choice), it’s more that I don’t envision the closest contenders making any notable strides to close the gap. Billy Hamilton’s speed alone makes him a terrific defender and the two center fielders with the best statistical cases to compete for the award are the Braves’ Ender Inciarte and the Brewers’ Kirk Niewenhuis. Neither are even guaranteed regular playing time down the stretch. Ergo, Billy Hamilton wins because he should keep up his stellar play in a secured role and continue to expand his modest lead in DRS and UZR.
Now, the American League is one hell of a race.
Let’s list some of the regular center fielders in the AL: Mike Trout, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Kiermaier, Lorenzo Cain, Byron Buxton (yes, he’s back in Triple A), Jacoby Ellsbury, and, last but not remotely close to least,Kevin Pillar.
That’s a lot of talent roaming center field in the Junior Circuit. Honestly, any one of those players could win the Gold Glove and I wouldn’t make much of a fuss. Still, I’m taking Pillar right now because of his extreme UZR discrepancy. He’s at or near the top of every important defensive statistic right now (fielding percentage, DRS, etc.), but his UZR lead is unbelievable. Lorenzo Cain is 2nd in the AL in UZR with a really good 9.6 rating. Kevin Pillar is sitting at 21.1. If I wanted too, I could easily make the case for Pillar as the best defender not just in center field, but in the entirety of the American League.
Spontaneous executive decision: I’m watching Kevin Pillar defensive highlights after I finish this.
Allow me to start the Pillar love-fest right now
Gold Glove Right Fielders: Adam Eaton (AL) & Jason Heyward (NL)
Right field is not a close race at the moment in either league.
Adam Eaton is the right field version of 2016 Kevin Pillar. He’s at the top of every defensive statistic and his UZR is off the charts (like, higher than Pillar off-the-charts). I mean, Eaton is having a down year offensively and he’s still owner of the eighth best WAR in the entire American League. His defense has been absolutely incredible and deserves to be recognized, even if we’re minimizing the stellar defensive efforts of Mookie Betts and George Springer in the process. Because Adam Eaton is that much better than the competition. If only we could say the same about the White Sox…
Oh yeah, speaking of right fielders that are having really disappointing offensive seasons…
Jason Heyward is not worth the contract he was awarded this offseason. He is overpaid and it’s not really debatable. However, if offensive statistics were ignored completely and defense became the only thing that mattered in baseball, Jason Heyward would be the National League MVP in a landslide.
Unfortunately for J-Hey that’s not the case.
Nevertheless, Jason Heyward is practically lapping the field this year for the Gold Glove. His DRS and defensive rating are both nearly double the next closest contender. And if you’re fatigued from dealing with advanced statistics, look at the old fashioned numbers. Jason Heyward hasn’t made an error for the Cubs this season.
If I were to build the perfect right fielder, it would look an awful lot like Heyward (though, I’d probably want Mookie Betts or Bryce Harper’s bat). He should win his fourth Gold Glove with ease.
So that’s where the Gold Glove races are as we head into the home stretch. Now I’m off to watch those Kevin Pillar highlights I mentioned earlier.
(All statistics referenced courtesy of fangraphs.com)
Baseball’s best offense is waiting on a potential game-changer. The Boston Red Sox system is just unfair at this point.
Major league baseball is practically overrun with young talent making massive impacts at the major league level. The Chicago Cubs, fronted by Kris Bryant (24) and Anthony Rizzo (26), are set for practically the next decade on the offensive side of the diamond. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado are all under 25 with their best years most likely still to come. The Minnesota Twins, with Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler are projected for greatness in the near future. In the Lone Star State, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, and Joey Gallo are all primed to lead the charge for Texas baseball over the next century (okay, maybe not quite that long).
From the best of the best to 2016’s cellar dwellers, it seems that every team has a potential offensive superstar buried somewhere within their organization, just waiting to bloom.
And then there’s the Boston Red Sox.
Sure, David Ortiz, at 40 years old, is currently pacing the Sox in batting average, on base percentage, slugging, and OPS. The Red Sox are undoubtably Big Papi’s team for at least the rest of this season (I refuse to believe the retirement shtick), but the future has clearly arrived. With Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi (likely) in the outfield for the next five years, Xander Bogaerts manning shortstop for the foreseeable future, and Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart offering up a potentially dynamic backstop combo, the Red Sox have all the pieces in place to field a dynastic offense.
Yet one player remains a mystery.
Signed in March of 2015 at just 20 years old, Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada is currently making an absolute mockery of Double A baseball.
Starting the season in High A, Moncada earned a quick promotion in his second professional season by slashing .307 with a ludicrous 36 stolen bases across 61 games. Over the first two months of the 2016 season, Moncada was sporting a .427 OBP and a .923 OPS. Those are the kind of numbers that can easily get a fanbase into a tizzy.
Those aren’t the numbers that actually have fans in Boston salivating the major league debut of a 21 year old infielder.
I’m being told this gif of Moncada running is, in fact, not sped up. What???
Since being promoted to the Portland Sea Dogs in Double A, Yoan Moncada has produced otherworldly numbers. Check it out:
15 games. 4 stolen bases. 14 runs batted in. 20 hits. 3 doubles. 2 triples. 4 home runs (matching his total over four times the amount of games in Single A Salem). A cool .317 batting average. An acceptable .358 on base percentage. And an incredulous .977 OPS.
Take away the decline in walk rate (which is to be expected with such a huge leap), and Moncada has somehow been worlds better than his already exciting High A teaser. MLB.com’s number five prospect in all of baseball seems primed to make quick work of the minor leagues and dominate his way onto the 2017 Red Sox, maybe even out of Spring Training next March.
(Also worth noting: the four prospects ahead of Moncada according to MLB.com all project to debut within the next month or so, opening up a chance that Moncada ascends to number one prospect status in relatively short order. Heck, Baseball America already has him rated as the best prospect in baseball. Not bad for a guy who couldn’t legally buy a drink until May)
Cheers!
Here’s the problem with Yoan Moncada’s rapid ascension: Unlike his Portland teammate, Andrew Benintendi, there’s no clear opening for Moncada on the major league roster. The future outfield is set in Boston, pending Benintendi’s arrival. Shortstop is out of the question for Yoan. The corner infield is currently stocked with Travis Shaw, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval, one of whom will clearly be tasked with following up the storied recent history of being DH of the Red Sox. And second base, the position Moncada has exclusively manned throughout his minor league career, is likely still Dustin Pedroia’s for at least another couple of years. So where the heck is this future star supposed to play?
One option, probably the least likely, would be the Red Sox trading away Dustin Pedroia to open up second for the youngster. Quite simply, the former MVP second baseman is too well loved in the Boston community to make this a feasible option for Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, at least at the moment.
The Sox could opt to move an outfielder (Jackie Bradley Jr., in all likelihood) and shift Moncada to the outfield. One of the young stars roaming the outfield in Boston would surely be enough to net the Red Sox a massive upgrade for their maligned pitching staff. Still, unless the Boston front office could actually land a true ace (Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, etc.) in a one-for-one deal, a departure from the current Red Sox outfield seems out of the question.
Seriously, Dave, don’t trade Jackie Baseball.
Moving Travis Shaw to first base and Hanley Ramirez to designated hitter has always seemed like the most sensible option for the Red Sox. Travis Shaw, while a good defender at the hot corner, is still better suited for first base. Minimizing the injury risk for Hanley by getting him out of the field is also a highly intelligent move by Boston management. Plus, Moncada certainly has the range and likely the arm to handle a move to third.
The problem with this alignment, however, is currently rehabbing from season-ending shoulder surgery and has been a huge afterthought despite his massive contract.
PANDA, PANDA, PANDA!
After losing his third base job out of spring training, Pablo Sandoval has easily taken over for the largest Red Sox disappointment in recent history (though Rusney Castillo isn’t far behind). Nevertheless, he’s owed a ton of money over the next three years, and a contract of Sandoval’s magnitude often leads to a mandate for management to find him playing time. It’s a terrible line of thinking, but if I were paying a guy $18 million dollars every year, I’d probably want a little return on investment, too.
Despite currently having a crowded major league infield, Yoan Moncada isn’t going to be blocked by the current talent. Within the next calendar year (barring injury), the top prospect in the Red Sox organization will be playing everyday at Fenway. He’s got the kind of talent that can’t be held back by anyone that isn’t a bona-fide star.
Who knows when Yoan Moncada will make his debut. It could be in September of 2016. It could be April of next year. Or they could hold him back for a few extra months next spring. Whenever he makes his way to the majors, though, it’ll be the most anticipated prospect debut in Boston since Xander Bogaerts, at least.
And don’t discount the possibility that Moncada could be the best youngster in Boston, surpassing even MVP contenders like Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. After all, he’s just 21 with solid raw power, uber-elite speed, defensive proficiency, and still unknown potential.
The Home Run Derby concept is played out. It’s time for a fresh event in the Midsummer Classic. I’ve got an idea, just hear me out.
You know in the classic Wii Sports how there’s an option to train for each specific sport? Well, I happened to be fooling around the other day, honing my virtual tennis skills, when I was struck with an idea. To understand my phenomenally ludicrous idea, a little background on the game is necessary.
First off, I don’t know much about tennis at all. I’ve never played the sport in any competitive sense and have a very rough understanding of the game’s nuances. Honestly, I’ve spent more time around Nintendo’s virtual rendering of the game than any real-life exposure. Still, if there’s one piece of information I’ve come to understand about tennis, it’s that the game is primarily about placement. If I can return the ball to a point on the court where my opponent cannot reach, it’s more likely that I’ll receive the point.
Go ahead, marvel at my nuanced tennis analysis
In training for the “basement Wimbledon” in my household, I stumbled across a training exercise specifically focused on the placement of my returns. Plopped onto a tennis court with a brick wall in the place of the net, the objective is to serve the ball towards the clay bullseye repeatedly without allowing a double bounce (I’m sure there’s a more technical term than “double bounce”). While not required to hit the target on every return, you only earn points for each target broken. With the eternal regeneration of the targets, the whole exercise is really just a convoluted representation of the futility of sports where an endgame is never truly within one’s grasp. Like every sport, there’s the continued pursuit of higher and higher statistics that creep toward infinity.
“33 points” is alright, but isn’t it all pointless in the end?
Anyway, as I found myself swinging a motion-sensing remote control back in forth while watching a television screen in my basement, I was served up a moment of inspiration.
Over the course of roughly the last month, I’ve heard multiple propositions for a Home Run Derby geared specifically towards pitchers at the MLB All-Star Game at some point in the near future. Driven by the power displays of multiple pitchers, Madison Bumgarner headlining the group, a proposition for a new event geared towards #PitchersWhoRake seems to make perfect sense, particularly since the Midsummer Classic is nothing more than a huge money grab for MLB owners disguised as a celebration of the sport.
My proposal: let’s combine the overall objective of Tennis Target Practice in Wii Sports with the elite arms of major league outfielders.
I want to see a half dozen clay targets set up on pedestals at various places in the outfield while a bunch of cannon-armed outfielders attempt to break said targets with their best placed rocket throws from home plate. Let’s put Yasiel Puig at the plate and watch him rear back and throw rockets at bullseyes in the outfield. That screams must-see television.
I’d put terrific throws from outfielders as on par, excitement-wise, with a good ole fashioned home run. There’s nothing better than watching some right fielder just chuck the ball towards third base and double up some poor fool. So why not celebrate these feats of athletic greatness in the most indulgent fashion imaginable? It’s a glorified throwing contest that probably takes place in spring training regularly, only blown up into the national spotlight and turned into a legitimate competition.
The power. The accuracy. I’ll watch Yoenis Cespedes throw out fools for hours
I’ll be honest, my first proposition for this event was even more ridiculous than the one I just proposed. Everyone is familiar with the concept of trap shooting, right?
My original proposal: let’s have a bunch of big-ass targets thrown across the outfield and watch players try and knock them out of the air with a white ball less than three inches in diameter. Failing that, why not have the targets suspended by some sort of wire and just glide back and forth across the field? Not only are the players forced to throw three hundred feet in a really screwed up game of darts, but the target is consistently moving in this scenario. I might be able to hit a stable target with enough opportunities; I want to see something accomplished by these athletes that I’m 100% positive I could never accomplish in a million attempts.
While novel ideas, a moving target would likely be too difficult for even major league athletes to handle at the envisioned distance. After all, in a real game third base isn’t moving while the right fielder tries to throw out that cocky, disrespectful baserunner. So instead, let’s just have a bunch of targets spread out, each worth some set number of points based on distance relative to home plate, and introduce a bunch of uber-competitive guys into the most idiotic scenario imaginable.
Yes, I’m aware that this proposal is unlikely to gain any real traction in the Major League Baseball offices. Plus, teams aren’t likely to permit their multi-million dollar investments to potentially tear up their shoulders in a meaningless exhibition. Nevertheless, the arms on major league outfielders are incredible and I’d love to see them put in the national spotlight. And the more ridiculous the exhibition, the better. After all, I’m all about manufacturing a product that provides maximum entertainment value for my fellow fans.
These guys get it! We’re all just here to have some fun!
But what shall we call this event and who will sponsor such a spectacle?
I’ve got a few ideas. How about the “UPS Air Mail Throwing Exhibition?” Or the “State Farm Outfield Assist Challenge?” Wait, the “Jack Daniels’ Cannon Arm Dartboard Competition!”
See, MLB, this proposition comes tailor-made for sponsorship opportunities! Why would you turn down such and incredible proposal? Go ahead and have Rob Manfred send me an email. I’ll tell him where to send the check. Let’s make it happen and slap on a “#THIS.”
Come on, let’s watch players show off their cannons! This is what sports are all about!
The National League has almost too many pitchers to narrow it down to just one All-Star staff. Let’s try anyway.
This is the main attraction. This is why we’ve all been toiling through the first half of the season. It’s all just waiting for that fleeting glimpse of brilliance.
Sure, the American League is full of really good pitchers. But it’s not the National League. No, the Senior League is where the real pitchers hone their craft. Blame it on the lack of a DH for the superior stats, but the NL is clearly home to at least seven of the ten most talented pitchers in baseball. And with one notable exception (Matt Harvey), all of the traditionally dominant aces in the National League have been lights out again in 2016.
National League pitching is simply better. The American League Cy Young race is entertaining for entirely different reasons than the National League. In the AL, aside from Chris Sale, the Cy Young race is dominated by career average pitchers having unforeseen success and bounce back candidates like Kluber and Hamels. In the NL, the Cy Young race is divided among at least seven or eight different pitchers that have been consistently dominant forces tossing multiple career years in one hot, swirling mass of pitching excess, culminating in arguably the most fascinating assortment of top-heavy pitching talent ever witnessed in major league baseball.
Now, that’s a sentence. Anyway, let’s talk about the cream of the crop set to make the cut and show up in San Diego in a few weeks.
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers, 1.79 ERA/0.73 WHIP)
He is the alpha and the omega. The beginning and the end. He is one with divinity. Perfection personified.
Seriously, he’s the best pitcher in baseball and it’s not particularly close. He leads all MLB starters in ERA, WHIP, innings, strikeouts, shutouts, BB/9, and K/BB. He’s struck out 145 batters compared to just 9 walks all year. By all accounts this is Kershaw’s finest season yet, and that’s including his NL MVP-winning 2014. He’s the undisputed favorite to take home his second MVP award and fourth Cy Young at the half way point. Should he win a second MVP, he would be one of just four starters to win multiple league MVP awards, and the first to do so since the 1940s. He’s also set to become the fifth pitcher to win four career Cy Young awards, joining Greg Maddux, Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens. His 16.11 K/BB is also set to absolutely obliterate the mark set by Phil Hughes two seasons ago. Kershaw is pretty much the LeBron James of baseball. He’s a shoe-in for his sixth straight All-Star game.
When Jake Arrieta feels like giving up a hit, he’ll let you know
Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs, 2.10 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
The reigning NL Cy Young winner has not had quite as dominant a follow-up. His ERA has taken a hit, going from lights out to just lights out. He’s also walking significantly more batters this year, as evidenced by his 3.9 BB/9 compared to last year’s 1.9 mark. Still he’s racked up the second most wins of any pitcher in baseball with the fourth lowest ERA in the majors. He’s holding opponents to the second lowest batting average against in baseball has a no-hitter on his resume in 2016. He’s absolutely still elite and deserving of a spot in San Diego this year. Also, imagine if he has another ridiculous second half like his post-All-Star break 2015…
Make Baseball Fun Again
Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins, 2.28 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
Is it safe to say the 23 year old fireballer is better than ever? Absolutely. Leading the Marlins to a surprisingly good first half, Fernandez has returned to his 2013 pitching levels and then taken another step forward. He’s second in strikeouts behind Kershaw and is averaging the most Ks per nine by a significant margin. His WHIP is phenomenal and evident of his still excellent control. In his first full season since Tommy John surgery, Jose Fernandez has done an excellent job of reminding the baseball world that he’s a near-lock to win a Cy Young at some point in his career, health permitting. He’s also just a joy to watch and should absolutely be included in the Midsummer festivities in SoCal.
Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants, 1.99 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
EVEN YEAR! EVEN YEAR! Madison Bumgarner is turning in the finest season of his already stellar career. His ERA is almost a full run lower than it has been over the past two years (both All-Star campaigns, BTW), and he’s striking out more batters than ever. The walks are up a touch, but have pretty much been irrelevant courtesy of a bump in K%. Bumgarner’s peripherals indicate the ERA is a touch lower than it should be, but every statistic is pretty much in line with his career averages, save the earned runs allowed. If he was an All-Star last year, he’s done nothing to relinquish that title in his age 26 season. Might as well make MadBum a four-time All-Star and throw him in the Home Run Derby while he’s down in San Diego, just for fun.
Another David Ross sighting? Maybe he’s the key to the Cubs success
Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs, 2.03 ERA/0.97 WHIP)
Oh look, the Cubs have another player deserving of an All-Star selection! Who would have guessed? Nothing has changed for Lester since last year, save for his luck. He’s pretty much the same pitcher his always been, he’s just had the luckiest season of his career thus far. Still, the raw skills the 32 year old Lester possesses are more than enough to justify his place on an All-Star pitching staff. At this rate, I’m fairly certain the Cubs are going to make up roughly 50% of the National League All-Star roster. Lester also isn’t the last Cub that deserves to be in San Diego, but I’ll get to that later.
Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals, 2.90 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
Sure, he’s currently dealing with a back issue and may not be healthy enough to pitch in the All-Star game in the first place. But he’s also in the midst of a career year, posting his lowest full-season ERA yet while striking out a few more batters than usual. With a seven year contract extension under his belt, he’s pretty much been the exact same Stephen Strasburg to which fans should be familiar. The only real difference between his last few seasons and 2016 is the fact that he’s playing for arguably the best Nationals squad he’s been a part of while benefitting from solid run support regularly. It’s been four years since Strasburg last graced an All-Star roster. That drought should end this summer, even if Strasburg can’t actually pitch in the game.
That’s a 94 MPH slider. That shouldn’t be possible.
Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets, 2.49 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
In the ever-raging battle of DC vs. Marvel, it appears New York is now Marvel territory. Matt “The Dark Knight” Harvey has had a mostly disappointing first half while the new guy, Noah “Thor” Syndergaard, has been lights out and emerged as the best pitcher in the Mets organization. He’s one of the premier strikeout artists in the game, thanks to his high-90s heat, and also has displayed masterful control with the fourth lowest BB/9 in baseball. He’s dealing with a bone spur in his throwing elbow, which doesn’t bode particularly well for the rest of his season, but his first half dominance has still been more than worthy of an All-Star selection. “Thor” should undoubtably make the trip from Asgard, I mean Citi Field, to San Diego in the coming weeks.
“You put your right leg in…”
Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants, 2.42 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
I almost want to leave Cueto off the roster just because of his shameless chase for another ring. I mean, signing with the Giants before an even year is a pretty weak move.
Jokes aside, is it really surprising that Johnny Cueto is pitching well in San Francisco? Sure, his stint with the Royals wasn’t vintage Cueto, but he’s in a great pitchers park with a terrific defense at his back throwing to the best pitch framer in the business. Johnny Cueto is in the perfect situation for a pitcher with his skill set, especially as his strikeout ability continues to erode. He’s been phenomenal for the Giants and his addition is one of the biggest reasons for more “even year” optimism in the Bay.
Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves, 2.46 ERA/0.89 WHIP)
You want to grasp just how bad the Braves are? Julio Teheran has just three wins all year. Teheran’s win-loss record is the reason nobody should look to a pitcher’s record as indication of their performance. There’s a lot of luck to be found in Teheran’s numbers, for sure, but he’s also made some noticeable improvements in his age 25 season, including career high strikeout rates and career low walk rates. It’s amazing just how much pitchers seem to improve when they work on their command and refrain from giving hitters free bases or allowing the ball to be put in play. Takes away a lot of the randomness present in baseball. I’m sure Teheran doesn’t maintain a 2.46 ERA the rest of the season. I’d guess it might even land around 3.20 if I’m being honest. Still, the Braves are bad and Teheran should be rewarded for being the polar opposite of his team.
That’ll play, I suppose
Drew Pomeranz (San Diego Padres, 2.76 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
This guy doesn’t make much sense at all. Pomeranz hasn’t been a full time starter since 2012 for the Rockies and has never flashed this kind of skill. Petco Park has historically bumped up strikeouts for pitchers, but the increase in Pomeranz’s strikeout rate is almost unfathomable. Per nine, Pomeranz is striking out nearly two more batters than his career average. He’s also been remarkably stingy with the home run ball in a year where hitters are leaving Petco Park at previously unheard of levels. Pomeranz has arguably been the most surprising breakout pitcher of 2016. Like Teheran, there’s obvious regression due, especially since pitchers typically don’t carry elite ERAs while walking four batters per nine. Nevertheless, San Diego gets to host the Midsummer Classic and should likewise be well-represented in front of the hometown fans.
Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles Dodgers, 1.38 ERA/0.67 WHIP)
Don’t let Dodgers fans fool you; the Los Angeles bullpen is sneakily excellent and they’re led by a lights out closer in Kenley Jansen. His strikeouts are down significantly (though he’s still pulling in more than one per inning), but his ERA is currently a career low. He has blown three saves over the first three months of the year, but that shouldn’t be an indictment of his performance. He’s only allowed one home run and five walks in 32.2 innings all year. The blown saves have largely been the result of a few nights where he’s been a little more hittable than normal. In every other outing, however, Jansen has been one of the best relievers in baseball. It’s about time for Kenley to make his first All-Star appearance.
Fernando Rodney (San Diego Padres, 0.31 ERA/0.87 WHIP)
Ok, so clearly God started missing arrows repeatedly flying across heaven and decided to bless Fernando Rodney. Seriously, how else can you explain a 39 year old reliever that had bounced in and out of baseball over the last two years suddenly posting a career year? Through almost the entirety of the first half, Fernando Rodney has allowed just one earned run. He’s regained his strikeout form and is suddenly unhittable. The Padres traded away Craig Kimbrel in the offseason, knowing they wouldn’t need an elite closer in 2016. Who would’ve guessed they’d stumble into one anyway. Fernando Rodney is probably going to give up quite a few runs in the second half. His peripherals suggest he’s been extremely lucky and regression should be inevitable. But I’m convinced Fernando has been blessed and it’s clearly his destiny to rob the Cy Young from Kershaw in 2016.
Mr. Stone Buddha
Seung Hwan Oh (St. Louis Cardinals, 1.62 ERA/0.85 WHIP)
At 33 years old, calling Oh a rookie is a bit misleading. Sure, it’s his first season in the United States, but he’s been dominating overseas for years. It shouldn’t come as such a surprise that he really is an awesome pitcher. Across the board his numbers have been elite. He’s stingy with both walks and hits. He’s given up just one home run all year. He’s also struck out 51 batters over 39 innings. And now, “The Final Boss” might actually have the closer role temporarily in St. Louis. Hell, if he’s going to be one of the best relievers in baseball, let him close. And definitely let him take his talents to the Midsummer Classic.
David Ross again???
Hector Rondon (Chicago Cubs, 1.65 ERA/0.66 WHIP)
Ah yes, the third Cubs pitcher deserving of an All-Star appearance. In reality, Rondon’s odds at making a trip to San Diego are pretty slim. Like Seung Hwan Oh, every traditional pitching stat indicates that Hector Rondon has been elite across the board. Like Kenley Jansen, Rondon has also been victimized by the rare off nights scattered amongst a lights out season that has resulted in three blown saves. A lot of fans in Chicago seem to be of the opinion Theo Epstein and the Cubs should trade for an elite reliever like Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman. It seems like they don’t understand that Rondon has really been quite excellent and will undoubtably be one of the biggest snubs for the All-Star roster, barring an outside chance of being an injury replacement.
The final piece in an excellent NL All-Star staff
A.J. Ramos (Miami Marlins, 1.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
The Marlins might have an elite power reliever on their hands. The problematic aspect of his game, separating Ramos from the realm of truly dominant relievers, is his control. He’s a strikeout artist that limits contact from opposing teams, but by extension he’s also walking 5.2 batters per nine. That’s untenable. Regardless, Ramos has turned in a stellar season and even spotty control hasn’t stopped him from locking down all 24 save opportunities he’s been afforded. The control is Ramos’s fatal flaw and one that doesn’t appear likely to improvement midseason. Nevertheless, he’s been a lock-down closer and is fairly deserving of the last spot on the National League All-Star pitching staff.
That’ll do. The National League is certainly heavy on elite starters and light on top-notch relievers when compared to their American League counterparts. This is one hell of a pitching staff, though, and represents the ideal selections for Terry Collins when it comes to the 2016 Midsummer Classic.
Honestly, the National League could probably get by with just Kershaw. But it’s nice to recognize others, even if you could just lean on the best pitcher of his generation for a complete game against the premier American League hitters. Frankly, I kind of want to see Kershaw throw a complete game three hitter against the American League All-Stars now.
Who cares about the position players? The All-Star Game is really just an excuse to put together that fantasy pitching staff you’ve always dreamed about, after all. So let’s do it.
Last season, the MLB All-Star Game witnessed twenty-nine different pitchers representing their respective teams in the Midsummer Classic. A few of those pitchers won’t be making the trip again this season. Pitchers are fickle creatures whose performance varies wildly year to year (unless you’re Clayton Kershaw). As a result, it’s unlikely that even half of the pitchers in Cincinnati last year will make the trip to San Diego this year.
Of course, some pitchers are simply so good that the All-Star trip is getting to be a yearly burden (I bet there’s a Dodger that doesn’t want to make the drive down to San Diego).
Regardless, the position players represented in the All-Star Game are boring. About half of them are selected by fan voting. There’s bound to be mistakes thanks to overenthusiastic fanbases fiercely loyal to their players (*cough* Royals *cough*). It’s a flawed system that I don’t feel like addressing. Instead, I’m going to talk about the players that selected every year by other players and major league managers.
It’s also pointless to worry about each team being represented at this juncture. For publicity’s sake, Major League Baseball has a lot to gain from having a player representing each franchise at the All-Star game. Still, it’s a headache trying to predict which Philly is making a trip to San Diego. So I’m going to focus on the pitchers that deserve to be there on merit alone, not just to fill a quota.
Without further adieu, let’s take a look at the American League All-Star Pitching Staff…
Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox, 2.79 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
Sale leads all of baseball in pitcher wins. It’s a flukey statistic that doesn’t mean much at all, but it’s still impressive. More importantly, he’s third in baseball in total innings pitched, with 113 excellent innings. He’s tossed three complete games on the year and is tied for the lowest WHIP among AL starters. And he hasn’t even truly hit his stride. He’s averaging less than a strikeout an inning thus far, after striking out 274 last year. His K/9 is down 3.1 this year; when the strikeouts start coming in bunches, I’m sure Sale’s ERA will tumble as well. I’d have him start the Midsummer Classic for the American League, but the next few pitchers on this staff have strong cases as well.
Sit your ass down, Mr. Trout.
Steven Wright (Boston Red Sox, 2.18 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
The knuckleball sensation has been stellar for the Red Sox this year. He currently boasts the lowest ERA among American League starters and the fifth lowest in all of baseball. He’s tied with Sale in terms of complete games this season. His FIP would indicate that the insanely low numbers are inflated by a bit of luck, but the knuckleball is so wacky that I don’t like trusting advanced statistics when referencing this rare breed. It may be difficult for Wright to keep the ball dancing for the rest of the year, but right now he’s in Cy Young R.A. Dickey territory right now. He’s truly having one of the finest seasons any knuckleballer has ever enjoyed. He’ll be in San Diego. The only question is who will be tasked with catching the wild, magical knuckle.
Danny Salazar (Cleveland Indians, 2.40 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
His walk rate is troubling, but everything else about Salazar’s first half screams All-Star. He’s allowing the second lowest batting average against in the AL. He’s allowed the third fewest hits per nine in all of baseball, slightly better than the great Clayton Kershaw even. He’s racking up strikeouts and keeping games close for the best team in the AL Central. By all accounts, he’s posted numbers that make a strong case for Salazar to be considered the new ace of the Indians. And yet…
The Klubot is still turning in consistently great outings. Don’t let the ERA fool you, Kluber is still very much in the conversation for best pitcher in the American League. He’s tied with Sale for the lowest WHIP in the AL. He’s pitched the second most innings in the American League, striking out a batter every inning thanks to his robot mechanics. He’s tossed three complete games, two of which were shutouts. Take away a bad outing in Houston back in May, and Kluber’s numbers are right in line with the elite in the American League. I’m not ruling out a second Cy Young for Kluber just yet.
Cole Hamels (Texas Rangers, 2.60 ERA/1.22 WHIP)
He’s the ace of the best team in baseball. He’s striking out nearly a batter an inning and dominating the competition. Yet for Hamels, this season isn’t anything overly spectacular. His ERA is only the second best of his long, successful career after all. The advanced metrics indicate Hamels is do for significant regression, but his track record suggests that he can keep this up. And if he does continue to mow down the competition, at 32 years old he could challenge for the first Cy Young award of his career. Plus, he’s likely to clear 20 wins without a problem for a great Rangers team. Cool.
How to shut down the Red Sox offense: 88 MPH cheddar
Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays, 2.81 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
The fact that Marco Estrada has just five wins on the year is criminal. Check out the elite statistics that Estrada has posted while essentially taking over as the ace of the Blue Jays:
5th in WHIP among major league starters.
Lowest batting average allowed by any starter in baseball.
Fewest hits per nine in all of baseball, at 5.35.
He’s striking out a fair amount of guys (92 over 99 IP), but the key to his success has been keeping the ball in the dirt. 24% of all balls in play against Estrada have failed to leave the infield. If the ball isn’t going very far, it’s going to be tough to get hits against him. Hitters just haven’t been able to make hard contract against Estrada and it’s created the recipe for a career year in Toronto.
Michael Fulmer (Detroit Tigers, 2.40 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
The only AL rookie pitcher worthy of an All-Star spot this year, Michael Fulmer has been incredible over his first 63.2 innings. He had a stretch of four straight scoreless starts that all went at least six innings back in early June. Probably one of the least heralded pitchers to make a debut this year, Michael Fulmer has undoubtably been the best rookie starter in the majors and should absolutely be in the running (if not the frontrunner) for American League Rookie of the Year. Congratulations to Fulmer for making my All-Star roster and here’s hoping managers and other players recognize your stud-liness.
Masahiro Tanaka (New York Yankees, 3.01 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
Pitching with a UCL that still hasn’t been repaired, Masahiro Tanaka has looked almost like the rookie pitcher that took the American League by storm two years ago. He’s not a big strikeout guy anymore and none of his statistics really jump out as “wow” worthy. He’s simply a solid pitcher that keeps defying the odds. I’m the furthest thing from a Yankees fan, but what Tanaka has done this year certainly warrants recognition. For that, I’m giving Tanaka the spot as the last starter on the American League All-Star roster.
In a division that added Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman this offseason, who would have excitedly bet on Zach Britton to be the premier closer in the AL East. It’s not a knock on his previous work; Britton’s been a dependable, excellent closer in Baltimore. It’s just shocking how dominant he’s been in the ninth inning this season. Coming off an All-Star 2015 campaign that saw Britton rise into the upper echelon of relief pitchers, Britton has somehow shown marked improvement. The 28 year old is allowing two fewer hits per nine and by all accounts his advanced statistics are actually improved from last season. I’m sure Britton will have trouble keeping a sub-1.00 ERA. That shouldn’t detract from the notion that he’s clearly one of the five best closers in the game.
“Gosh, it feels good to finally close games!”
Will Harris (Houston Astros, 0.80 ERA/0.86 WHIP)
For as great as Britton has been, Will Harris has an equal claim to the title of best reliever in the American League. He posted a 1.90 ERA in 2015 and has slashed that figure in half (and then some) thus far. The most notable number when looking at Will Harris’s first half has been the home runs hit off him: 0. Harris keeps the ball in the yard and offers no favors to the opposition, as evidenced by his 1.6 walks per nine, easily a career best. With ridiculous numbers all season, it’s a wonder it took A.J. Hinch and the Astros so long to move Harris to the ninth inning. But he’s there now and doesn’t look to be going anywhere.
If you’re seeing this, it’s already too late
Andrew Miller (New York Yankees, 1.34 ERA/0.62 WHIP)
One of just three relievers to strike out 100 batters last year, Andrew Miller has already struck out 63 batters over just 33.2 innings in 2016. That adds up to a 16.8 K/9. Absurd. He’s walked just three batters all season and has given up only eighteen hits. He’d probably have an ERA better than Britton or Harris if he hadn’t given up four home runs already. Nevertheless, Andrew Miller finished 10th in Cy Young voting last season and looks even better in his second year in the Bronx. In a vaunted bullpen armed with arguably the most exciting closer in the game, Andrew Miller has undoubtably been the best pound-for-pound pitcher in pinstripes this year.
Wade Davis (Kansas City Royals, 0.99 ERA/0.95 WHIP)
As a reliever, Wade Davis finished sixth in the Cy Young voting last season. While he hasn’t quite matched last year’s dominance, Davis is still set to post his second straight season with a sub-1.00 ERA. The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, yet Wade Davis continues to dominate the ninth inning. He’s yet to allow a home run and has just one blown save on the year. The Royals bullpen isn’t what it once was, but Wade Davis is still one of the best relievers in the business.
“Lo-Cain” more like “Where’d It Go-Cain,” am I right?
For as valuable as Zach Britton has been in the ninth inning, Baltimore has relished Brad Brach in a setup role to an equal degree. It’s amazing what improved control will do for a pitcher. Cutting down on his walks in a big way, Brad Brach has maintained his strikeout tendencies and become a lock-down reliever in the back end of an excellent Baltimore pen. He’s got 50 strikeouts already and could push towards 100 by the season’s end. With Darren O’Day, an All-Star last year, missing a good portion of the first half, Brad Brach has been huge in maintaining leads in Camden Yards. A lot of players have been pleasant surprises in Baltimore this year and Brach is just another great story for the O’s.
Bad quality gif, excellent quality pitch
Dellin Betances (New York Yankees, 2.89 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
Despite nearly doubling his ERA from last year, Dellin Betances has remained an elite reliever on pace to strikeout about 120 batters. In an improved backend, Betances’s usage hasn’t been nearly as high this year as the previous two. As a result, his statistics have actually taken a bit of a hit. A victim of some bad luck over a relatively small sample, Betances has actually improved significantly this season. His BB/9 is down from 4.3 to 1.9 this year. His K/9 is up from 14.0 to 16.2. His K/BB is up from 3.28 to 8.38 as a result. That’s incredible improvement. Take away a few unlucky hits and we might be talking about Betances as the most exciting reliever in baseball. And in the All-Star Game, you better bet I’m looking for excitement.
When the praises go up…
Kelvin Herrera (Kansas City Royals, 1.47 ERA/0.87 WHIP)
Seizing the last spot in the AL All-Star Bullpen, the one-time All-Star and darling of Ned Yost is set to make another appearance in the Midsummer Classic. And Herrera is undoubtably deserving this year. His ERA is down more than a full run since last season. Like Betances, his walks are way down while his strikeouts are way up. His career K/BB is 3.20. This season, Kelvin Herrera is posting a 7.67 mark. The strides Kelvin Herrera has made since bursting onto the scene in 2014 are remarkable and he’s a big reason why the Royals bullpen is still one of the elite in major league baseball. Why not make him a two-time All-Star?
That does it for the American League All-Star pitching staff. Come back tomorrow, when I shall reveal the hotly contested All-Star staff in the National League (spoiler: there’s a good chance Clayton Kershaw makes an appearance).
The least desirable title in sports is officially up for grabs. It’s time to declare a new “biggest loser.”
LeBron James just cemented himself as one of the premier basketball talents in the history of the game. He should have been already, but the last three games of the 2016 Finals are definitive proof that no player has ever mixed athleticism, basketball IQ, and a variety of skills in the same way that LeBron has. Even if his team accomplishments haven’t yet garnered comparison to Michael Jordan (which shouldn’t matter, but so it goes), the King is clearly on par with Bird and Magic at this point in his career. He’s also probably got another five to ten years in the league to surpass them. Watching LeBron is incredible.
More importantly, LeBron James and the Cavaliers just delivered the city of Cleveland, Ohio its first professional sports championship since the 1964 Browns won the NFL Championship (note: the Super Bowl didn’t come around until 1966). The Cavaliers snapped a 52-year title drought in Northern Ohio, officially relieving the malaise that has plagued Cleveland sports.
With the championship drought in Cleveland at an end, a new city must now assume the responsibility that comes with bearing the major professional sports title drought. Bags on heads, constant bemoaning of front offices, expecting every new addition to be a bust, we’re talking about the whole nine yards here. Cleveland set the bar pretty high when it comes to wallowing in futility.
However, an obvious city doesn’t truly come to mind. Milwaukee is currently owners of the longest drought, but the majority of the city is dominated by Green Bay Packers fans, thus alleviating the pain of watching the Brewers and Bucks. There’s certainly a case to be made for Charlotte, but the Carolina Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup in 2006 and bear close enough proximity to the city to disqualify their contention. Despite being owners of three helpless professional sports teams and the most dissatisfied fanbase in North America, Philadelphia can still hang it’s hat on the 2008 Phillies World Series.
While finding a city to assume Cleveland’s mantle as “saddest sports city” is difficult, there are a select few that make compelling cases.
Nothing quite screams dissatisfaction in your team like a good ole bag on the head
First, let’s start in Canada, where Toronto is currently suffering at the hands of a major sports league title drought that stretches all the way back to 1993. The Raptors get somewhat of a pass; they’ve only been in existence since 1995, after all. Sure, they’ve been mostly listless in their existence, but 21 years isn’t an excruciatingly long wait for a team’s first NBA championship. The Blue Jays, despite being the last franchise to win a professional title in the city, have been hopeless for most of their 23-year drought, with last year’s playoff appearance representing the first since the ’93 World Series. Most importantly, in a hockey-dominated city, Toronto fans have had to go without so much as a Stanley Cup appearance in 48 years. The Maple Leafs, alongside the St. Louis Blues, are currently owners of the longest Stanley Cup drought of any NHL team and just started another rebuild. Toronto fans have every right to be anxious for their next professional championship.
Yet, Toronto does not have what it takes to assume Cleveland’s old mantle. Houston and Atlanta both pose compelling arguments, with neither city celebrating a professional sports title since 1995. While a shorter drought than Toronto, they have both dealt with closer brushes to success than their northern counterpart.
Houston has marched out a mostly competitive Rockets team since their last championship, while Atlanta has watched the Braves flirt with periodic playoff appearances in recent years. Still, both cities are home to a few incredibly long droughts. The Atlanta Hawks haven’t won a NBA championship since moving to the city in 1968, while the Falcons likewise haven’t won a Super Bowl in their existence, stretching back to 1966. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros currently sit just behind the Indians and Cubs for the third longest World Series drought in major league baseball, having failed to win it all for the entirety of their 54-year existence. Houston and Atlanta both have compelling cases for assuming the title of the “most troubled professional sports city in North America.”
However, both cities don’t hold a candle to San Diego when it comes to current droughts. San Diego may technically only have two major professional sports teams (and the Chargers may be on their way out), but for these purposes I’m going to count the Los Angeles Clippers towards San Diego as well, because I’m sure there are many older Clippers fans still hanging tight in San Diego after the 1984 move. Either way, the city has been without a professional sports title since 1963, when the Chargers won the NFL Championship. The Padres have existed since 1969 without a World Series to their name. And the Clippers moved to San Diego in 1978 and since then have been without a title, adding to the pain of San Diego-ites(?).
If the public is ready to apply the Cleveland’s curse to San Diego, that’s perfectly acceptable. I’d like to make the case for two other cities, though.
Washington, D.C. and Minneapolis/St. Paul are two of just thirteen North American cities that play host to a team for all four major professional sports leagues on the continent. Of those thirteen cities, the Twin Cities and the U.S. Capital are tied for the longest drought without a title from any of their four respective franchises. 1991 was the last time either city celebrated a professional championship, when the Redskins won the Super Bowl and the Twins triumphed in the World Series.
To be fair, both cities are relatively new hosts to one of the professional sports leagues. The Nationals have only existed in Washington since 2005, while the Wild came into the NHL in 2001. Neither of those droughts are particularly painful. It’s the other three teams that are the source of ire for Washington and Minnesota sports fans.
Let’s break down Minnesota first. Sports in the Twin Cities have been extremely lackluster. The Minnesota Timberwolves, an NBA expansion team in 1989, have advanced to the Conference Finals just once and have never made an appearance in the NBA Finals. In that time, they’ve witnessed their two biggest stars, Kevin Garnett and Kevin Love, both be traded away to win championships with other organizations. Despite an eight year playoff run behind Garnett, the Timberwolves have spent the other 20 years of their existence in a perpetual rebuild. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins currently offer the promise of better days in Minnesota, but T-Wolves fans have already played witness to incredible talents failing to win before and probably shouldn’t get overly anxious, despite their talented core.
Timberwolves fans will have a hard time forgetting this mistake
Beyond the Timberwolves, Minneapolis and St. Paul have long supported the Twins, proprietors of the last title parade in Minnesota. Since relocating to the Land of Lakes in 1961, the Twins have won two World Series titles for the state of Minnesota. Sadly, since their last World Series, the Twins have made the playoffs just six times, with their last appearance occurring in 2010. While flirting with relevancy, the Twins have struggled to find a franchise cornerstone over much of the last 20+ years and have spent much of the 21st century wondering what might have been if management had kept David Ortiz.
Lastly, the Minnesota Vikings are yet another football franchise that hasn’t won in the Super Bowl era. However, in that time the Vikings have made 28 playoff appearances and played in four different Super Bowls. They’re simply a team that hasn’t been able to take the next step in the postseason, despite a variety of stars gracing the team, including Adrian Peterson and a retired Brett Favre. By all accounts, Minnesota sports have been rather listless for the better part of two and a half decades, while rarely carrying teams that even mustered legitimate title hope.
Minnesota fans probably won’t forget their latest playoff meltdown very soon
And yet, by the narrowest of margins, Washington, D.C. takes Cleveland’s mantle for the saddest sports city in North America. Sure, D.C. United has dominated the MLS in recent years, but soccer is still not considered a major North American sport in the eyes of the vast majority (though United actually drew slightly better crowds than the Wizards over the last year). Even with the recent rise of the MLS, the major four sports leagues still dominate bar conversations. And in these major sports, it’s been awhile since a Washington team has given our Congressmen reason to celebrate.
To start, the Washington Capitals, since their founding in 1974, have appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals once, while making the playoffs sporadically. Even in recent years, fronted by the premier goal scorer of the 21st century, the Caps have struggled in the postseason, including a letdown this year after winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the second time in franchise history. Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals figure to be in the thick of the Stanley Cup chase again next year, but until they actually make a postseason run, Washington fans will be stuck waiting for their first hockey championship.
“I feel the pain of everything, then I feel nothing…”
The second longest championship drought in Washington, stretching back to 1978, belongs to the Washington Bullets/Wizards. Since the days of Wes Unseld, the Wizards have been a mighty random mess. Throughout the eighties they were unable to field consistent teams and never challenged the Celtics and Lakers for NBA supremacy. After shipping out Moses Malone and rebuilding, the Wizards struggled to find a new franchise cornerstone throughout the ’90s and consistently missed the playoffs for the better part of a decade (through that Chris Webber run was alright). Through Michael Jordan’s post-retirement victory lap, Gilbert Arenas’s rise and, um, decline, to a new era with John Wall at the helm, the Wizards have consistently flirted with mediocrity and seem ill-equipped at present to change the status quo in the short-term.
The coup de gras in Washington, however, is their football team. Winning three Super Bowls in franchise history, the last coming 25 years ago, the Washington football team has been mired in the cellar of the NFC for most of the 21st century. Making the playoffs just six times in the last 25 years, while winning the NFC East three times and dealing with constant controversy, Washington has been on par with their division rivals, the Eagles, in terms of futility. Washington football, over their entire history, has actually been one of the more storied franchises in the NFL, but they have struggled recently and do not seem poised to alleviate the title drought in D.C.
It’s almost like Dan Synder’s team has been cursed…
In actuality, no city is currently suffering in their professional sports aspirations the way Cleveland had before last night. However, as we’re a narrative driven culture that thrives on classifying others, Washington, D.C. seems like a logical heir to the title of “Saddest Sports City.” Nevertheless, the Capitals are still dangerous, the Nationals could very well win a World Series this year, and the Wizards might have a chance to bring Kevin Durant back to his hometown (not saying it’s a good chance, though). The Washington football team is also coming off a playoff berth and Kirk Cousins put it best with his immortal quote:
Championships will come Washington sports fans. You need only have patience and faith.
In a “what have you done for me lately” league, a bunch of players have earned the scorn of their fanbases throughout the first half of the baseball season. Let’s single them out!
This time last year, Stephen Strasburg was berated by Nationals fans. Ian Desmond was another reviled Washington sports figure. Come to think of it, the Nationals had a lot of disappointments, an indicator of the lackluster season the Nats would endure.
Individual disappointments can be overcome by the collective. Jorge Soler was disappointing last season, but the Cubs still reeled off 97 wins. Matt Adams face-planted in 2015, but the Cardinals nevertheless won 100 games. Gregory Polanco failed to breakout as promised, yet the Pirates found themselves in the playoffs yet again. One dark spot can never doom a team.
A bunch of disappointments are a bad sign, though. The Nationals are the prime example in recent history, but Boston, Seattle, and San Diego also had multiple underachievers that doomed their playoff aspirations last season.
As a Red Sox fan, this was what I thought of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval last year
However, a down year from a perennial star or a prospect who’s debut falls flat happens to every team, every year. 2016 has been no different and it seems like a good time to talk about the biggest offender holding each team back from their potential. Some of these players might finish this season strong (think Robinson Cano’s second half last year), but we’re at a point where it’s fair to wonder whether this year will be a total failure for a number of players, including several perennial All-Stars.
As always, keep in mind the most prevalent truth in the sport: you just can’t predict baseball.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Patrick Corbin (4.76 ERA/1.35 WHIP/.271 BAA)
A.J. Pollock has ruined the Diamondbacks season. I’m not sure they’re playoff contenders even if he were healthy, but their postseason aspirations certainly depended on a relatively healthy Pollock. Still, you can’t blame a player that hasn’t played for being a disappointment.
Shelby Miller makes a compelling argument for being the Diamondbacks’ biggest failure. After all, he’s posted an ERA over 7.00 after being acquired for a package that would make Buck Showalter blush. However, the unfair pressure from the cost of acquiring Miller is the exact reason that I don’t identify him as more of a failure than Corbin. I’m probably wrong for that, but it’s my honest opinion.
Let’s be real, it’s the awful uniforms ruining the Diamondbacks’ season
Patrick Corbin looked great in his return from Tommy John surgery last season. He flashed the skills that once made him the prize of the Arizona rotation. And to some degree, he’s still shown those skills occasionally this season. It’s just the vast majority of his starts have been abysmal.
Only 5 of Corbin’s 11 starts have earned the distinction of being “quality.” That’s not an awful percentage, but it’s hardly desirable either. The notable culprit of Corbin’s bad outings have obviously been his stuff being far too hittable. He’s always given up his fair share of hits, with a career 9.0 H/9 to his credit. However, this year has also shown the all-too-common control issues that can plague recent survivors of Tommy John. Over the same amount of innings as last season, Corbin has already issued nine more walks and four extra home runs, while striking out thirteen fewer batters.
The differences between 2015 and 2016 aren’t massive for Corbin, but he was expected to improve in his first full season after surgery, not regress to career worst numbers in basically every statistical category. He’s still just 26 and warrants a little hope for a second half resurgence, but his 4.58 FIP suggests that he’s going to have to simply pitch better to avoid the tag of “disappointment” and stave off the criticism from Diamondbacks fans. The bulk of the ire in Arizona may be currently focused on Shelby Miller, but if Corbin doesn’t improve, he’ll be due for a heavy dose of criticism in the near future.
Atlanta Braves – Ender Inciarte (.227 BA/.298 OBP/.603 OPS)
The key piece returning to Atlanta in the Shelby Miller trade was Dansby Swanson. That alone is probably enough for a pitcher of Miller’s caliber. But that wasn’t everything the Braves received.
A proven major league center fielder, Inciarte is just 25 years old and hit .303 in 2015 with 21 stolen bases. Despite his profile as a potential leadoff hitter (though he’s not really got the plate discipline typical of leadoff men), Inciarte was never intended to be a long-term piece for the rebuilding Braves. Sure, he’s young enough that he would be in his prime the next time Atlanta is competitive, but the idea was always to move Inciarte after he builds up value.
To be fair, Inciarte did miss most of April with a hamstring injury. While that may have hampered him upon return, he’s far enough removed that his struggles are no longer warranted. If he can approach a .300 average over the next month or so, Ender could still prove to be a valuable trade chip for the Braves. If he doesn’t it won’t be a huge loss for a Braves squad going nowhere fast. Nevertheless, it’d be nice if the Braves could see the hitter they thought they were getting in the slam-dunk Miller trade.
The Orioles gave up their first round pick in this year’s draft to sign Gallardo. His numbers speak to just how much of a failure Gallardo’s first few months in Baltimore have been.
Yet, ultimately the Orioles haven’t really suffered from their prized free agent’s struggles. For one, he’s only made four starts all year, spending the rest of the season on the disabled list. While that’s not a positive, it also means that his poor pitching hasn’t dragged down Showalter’s squad (though his replacements haven’t posted much better numbers).
The fastball velocity has lost three ticks since last season and that’s a very troubling development, but Gallardo will make his return this weekend and hopefully he can whittle his inflated ERA closer to his career 3.70 mark. Gallardo making good on his lofty free agency price would go a long way to helping the Orioles maintain their division lead in the AL East.
Boston Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez (6.97 ERA/1.60 WHIP/.289 BAA)
The Red Sox need reliable starting pitching if they’re going to be true World Series contenders in the American League. David Price has been ace-like after a rough April. Knuckleball hero Steven Wright has a great case to start the All-Star game for the American League. Even Rick Porcello has turned in a season almost worthy of his somewhat bloated contract.
Yet, the rest of the rotation has been, um, AWFUL. Clay Buchholz has posted a 5.86 ERA across ten starts and five bullpen appearances after being demoted (thankfully, he’s scheduled to return to the rotation next week…ugh). Roenis Elias has a 15.88 ERA and has spent most of the season in Triple-A Pawtucket. Joe Kelly was rocked to the tune of an 8.46 ERA over six starts. Top pitching prospect, Henry Owens carried a 6.97 mark over three starts before demotion. Even Sean O’Sullivan was allowed to pitch two turns, with a 7.94 ERA to show for it.
The horribleness of 40% of the Red Sox rotation is a big reason why Eduardo Rodriguez has been so disappointing. He’s only made three starts after a knee subluxation sidelined him out of spring training and forced a lengthy rehab assignment. For a guy who was supposed to take a huge step forward under the tutelage of fellow lefty, David Price, Rodriguez’s hopeless appearances have been tough for the pitching-starved Red Sox to stomach. Plus, there’s rumor abound that he’s still tipping pitches, which was supposedly the focus of Eduardo’s offseason work. The expectations may have been lofty, but just getting back to last year’s numbers would be instrumental in removing the “disappointment” tag.
Chicago Cubs – Addison Russell (.234 BA/.332 OBP/.696 OPS)
Jason Heyward makes an extremely compelling case for this title, especially paired with his huge contract. However, any reasonable fan knew that living up to the hype isn’t really Heyward’s strong suit. Therefore, the title goes to the young shortstop in North Chicago.
Addison Russell hasn’t been a bad shortstop, relative to the position. He’s a terrific defender and his OPS is ninth among qualified shortstops in the National League. That’s a good player. The catch: Addison Russell was supposed to take a huge step forward in his second season and challenge the likes of Corey Seager for the best at the position in the NL. He was projected to hit 20 home runs and bat around .260 in a vaunted Cubs lineup.
Instead, he’s been less-than-stellar with the bat and has fallen well out of the top young shortstop discussion. It’s too early to make this comparison, and I don’t wish it upon Russell, but his career is starting to track towards that of Andrelton Simmons. That’s a really good shortstop and one of the best defenders in baseball. But Simmons’s bat has always held him back from becoming a true superstar. Hopefully, that’s not the case for Addison Russell.
Chicago White Sox – Carlos Rodon (4.28 ERA/1.50 WHIP/.286 BAA)
The White Sox have been a fairly disappointing team on the whole. Todd Frazier has hit for power and that’s about it. Jose Abreu is well below his career production levels. Adam Eaton has been awful in comparison to his 2015. James Shields has been…yeah, San Diego’s probably happy to be rid of him. I could go on, but really it’s a miracle that Robin Ventura still has his job on the South Side.
Still, Carlos Rodon’s lack of improvement has been most troubling. A former top pick who was rushed to the majors, Rodon and his otherworldly slider seemed to hint at a breakout coming into this season. In his rookie year, control was the major issue, much like his White Sox predecessor, Chris Sale. The White Sox ace figured out his control issues in short order and developed into one of the elite pitchers in the American League. The idea was Rodon would make that same progress in his second season.
Instead, he’s been home run prone and walked a bunch of batters. His WHIP has actually increased since his rookie season. White Sox fans have every right to be underwhelmed by Rodon’s progress. I’d advise Chicago fans to recognize that outside of an abysmal first start, Rodon has actually been a fairly decent pitcher. He’s not yet an ace, but he shouldn’t be written off just because he’s disappointed for the first few months of his second season.
Nobody should have had high expectations in Cincinnati this season. It’s an obvious rebuilding year and the most excitement in Cincy will still likely revolve around the trade deadline. This pessimism was not withheld from the bullpen, where very few pieces were established relievers coming into this season. J.J. Hoover was one of the few veteran pieces set to anchor the Reds’ bullpen.
Hoover should never have been trusted with more than a set-up role in a major league pen. However, he was clearly the most dependable closer option coming into this season. Then the actual games started and he became the first closer to lose his job. Next came a demotion to Triple-A. He’s since returned to Cincinnati in a middle relief role, but his swift fall from grace is evident of the shambles that make up the Reds’ bullpen. It’s quite possible the Reds might be trotting out the worst pen in baseball history, and that’s not hyperbole.
J.J. Hoover having a bad season isn’t a blow to the Reds’ chances of anything. In fact, in a rebuilding year, a few lost games thanks to a bad bullpen might actually help acquire a better draft pick. Still, it’s ugly to watch and I’m sure Cincinnati fans haven’t been pleased with their relievers, Hoover included.
Cleveland Indians – Yan Gomes (.167 BA/.204 OBP/.543 OPS)
It’s been a pretty swift fall from 2014’s peak for the Brazilian catcher. From a .278 mark two years ago to .231 last year, Gomes’s batting average and overall production have plummeted with no signs of improvement. He’s battled injury, but this season has actually been a relatively healthy one for Cleveland’s backstop.
So what gives? Why has Gomes devolved from one of the five best hitting catchers in ’14 to arguably one of the worst? I’m sure Indians fans would love to know the answer.
Offensively, the Indians have been middle of the pack this season in their chase for the AL Central crown. Without their star left fielder, Michael Brantley, the fact that they’ve been an average offensive team is remarkable. Nevertheless, Cleveland faithful would probably enjoy a more powerful offense to support. Everyone on the team is living up to their individual expectations thus far; if Gomes can return to an average hitter at catcher the Indians could become one of the better offenses in the American League. Until then, Yan Gomes will have his place cemented as one of the most disappointing players in baseball.
The Rockies traded away young outfielder, Corey Dickerson, in exchange for the hard-throwing closer. So far, neither team has won this trade; it’s been a net negative on both sides. I’ll get to Dickerson later, but for now, let’s focus on McGee.
After hitting the Disabled List last week, the Rockies have to be evaluating their high-cost bullpen acquisition. A 4.98 ERA is bad, even in Colorado. He’s already blown three saves this season. His career high in that statistic is four. It’s pretty obvious McGee is on pace for his worst season yet.
Colorado wasn’t expected to win the NL West this year. Jake McGee was simply a young, stabilizing option for a volatile bullpen. The cost, relative to the on-field results, is why McGee has been Colorado’s biggest disappointment. He’s still throwing hard, so perhaps he can turn his season around in the second half. Carlos Estevez has looked good in the closer role, though, so it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for McGee to lose his ninth inning gig for the Rockies.
Detroit Tigers – Justin Upton (.230 BA/.281 OBP/.638 OPS)
Justin Upton is the classic big-contract player that fails to live up to his price tag. There’s several examples every year (think Pablo Sandoval last season), and so far Upton has fit the mold to a tee.
Luckily, Upton has seemingly began to turn his season around recently, and by extension the Tigers have shown marked improvement. Over the last two weeks, Upton is hitting .292 with 13 RBIs, 2 home runs, and a pair of stolen bases. In that same span, the Tigers are 9-5 and have jumped above .500 for the season. Still, a sub-.300 on-base from a big acquisition is hardly optimal. The man hit 26 round-trippers last year. He’s stuck on five right now. Tigers fans have a right to be disappointed.
I’ll preach patience in this case, however. Upton’s track record suggests that he may not have been worth the contract, but this season is still not incredibly far off from his career slash line. I still envision a .250 average with 20 homers for Upton this year. Don’t write off J-Up yet, Tigers fans. Also, don’t forget that this is the player your team signed. He’s not really known for consistency. He’ll get better, I promise.
Remember how I said sometimes a team can have multiple players turn in disappointing seasons and doom that team’s postseason aspirations. It’s too early to throw the Astros into that category, but they’ve certainly had their share of lackluster first halves.
Collin McHugh is looking like a pitcher destined for mediocrity. Ken Giles has failed to take over the closer role in Houston, even with Luke Gregerson recently losing the job. Remember, the Astros gave up a lot to pry Giles away from Philadelphia. Carlos Gomez, despite a recent hot streak, is sitting on a .210 batting average with just three homers. It’s fair to wonder if this might simply be who the former All-Star is now. And Carlos Correa, the prized Astros shortstop, has really failed to live up to his huge rookie season, with just nine home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .256 batting average. He’s still a terrific young shortstop, but he’s yet to insert himself into the MVP conversation like some Houston fans hoped.
However, through all this disappointment, it’s last year’s American League Cy Young winner that has donned the “let-down” tag most often this season. After all, a 5.54 earned run average is hardly befitting for a recent Cy Young winner. He hasn’t really shown any signs of improvement recently either. His velocity is down a tick, but he’s not a flamethrower to begin with. He’s always relied on pinpoint command, and that seems to have abandoned him this season. Keuchel has already walked 29 batters after giving up just 51 free passes last year. By all accounts, he looks like the pitcher from before his 2014 breakout. If he can harness his command again (and return to dominating Minute Maid Park), it’s not unreasonable for a turnaround.
This has been painful to watch, though. Come on Dallas, you’re making Houston sad.
Kansas City Royals – Yordano Ventura (4.54 ERA/1.42 WHIP/.250 BAA)
He’s pretty good at starting fights, for whatever that’s worth.
In all honesty, it’s starting to feel like Ventura is never going to reach his ceiling. He throws hard and has the stuff to take off as a top starter in the American League, but he struggles with consistency. Another year and some tutelage from Johnny Cueto in the second half of a World Series run didn’t seem to help much. In a pitcher-friendly park with a terrific defense behind him, it’s puzzling that Ventura can’t consistently pitch well.
This year specifically, Ventura’s witnessed a sharp decline in his K-rate while issuing more walks than normal. His command has failed to improve with more experience and his terrific 2014 is starting to look like an outlier. There’s every reason to believe in Ventura’s raw talent, but the maturity concerns seem to be taking hold of his career and stunting necessary growth. Throw in expectations for him to lead the pitching staff of the defending World Series champions and it’s hard not to consider Ventura a major disappointment for Royals faithful.
Los Angeles Angels – Andrelton Simmons (.233 BA/.264 OBP/.564 OPS)
There really haven’t been that many disappointments for the Angels this season. Pretty much every regular has performed exactly to their expectations and the starting pitching hasn’t been far off from expectations (they were pretty low to begin with). The bullpen could be looked at as a letdown, specifically with closer Huston Street, but I really felt the pen was a team weakness from the onset. Garrett Richards’s UCL injury was unfortunate and I refuse to penalize a player for getting hurt.
In this case, Andrelton Simmons seems like the most obvious disappointment. A lot of his struggles, however, are tied to injury as well. He returned from a long-term DL stint recently and hasn’t really had time to find his footing in L.A. Maybe he can turn it around with the bat, but he’s never been much of a slugger to begin with. He should eventually straighten out at the plate and bring his numbers closer to his career numbers. I’m not all that worried.
Still, Andrelton Simmons was supposed to settle down the shortstop position for the Angels and have enough of a defensive impact to help Los Angeles stay competitive. A lot of factors have lent to the sharp decline in Anaheim and any expectation that Simmons could turn things around alone was foolish. He shouldn’t be considered disappointing, but he kind of falls into this spot by default.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Joc Pederson (.229 BA/.316 OBP/.784 OPS)
I refuse to give this spot to Yasiel Puig, even if he is the largest disappointment in the Dodgers organization over the last two years. He’s not making adjustments and Los Angeles should rightfully be sick of Puig by now.
Anyway, Joc Pederson has been another disappointment in the Los Angeles outfield. To be fair, he’s improved a fair amount from his rookie season, but he’s still not the player the Dodgers were hoping they had in their system. He’s up to 11 home runs on the year and still flashes the elite raw power. His batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS are all improved upon from last season. How can he be disappointing if he’s getting better?
Well, his on-base skills have eroded since year, falling almost 50 points in OBP since last year. Despite barely hitting over the Mendoza Line last year, he was still a serviceable leadoff hitter because he got on base regularly. This year, his batting average has seen a bump, but his walk rate is down and he’s no longer a potential long-term leadoff option for the Dodgers. Throw in the fact that he still hasn’t taken to stealing bases at the major league level and Joc Pederson is an L.A. letdown. He’s young, so he can still turn his career around, maybe even this season, but Dodgers fans have a right to be upset with the state of their outfield (despite Trayce Thompson turning into a surprisingly good hitter). The Dodgers have no shortage of players to blame for their (relative) struggles this season, and Joc Pederson is certainly towards the top of the list.
He’s on pace for 29 home runs this season. For almost any other player, that would be a good year; for Stanton, it’s a monumental letdown.
At this point, there has to be something physically wrong with the big slugger. There’s simply no explanation for one of baseball’s premier sluggers flirting with the Mendoza Line. This is starting to feel like Chris Davis’s 2014. Stanton struggled with an oblique injury, but avoided the DL in May. It’s safe to wonder whether the oblique might be lingering and affecting his swing. That would seem to be a sensible line of thought, if it weren’t for the fact that Stanton’s exit velocity is relatively unchanged. He’s still hitting balls, on average, harder than any other player in the league. He’s just making hard outs.
For Miami, I actually think they’re in a fairly fortunate situation. They’re in the thick of the NL Wild Card race despite Stanton’s struggles and Dee Gordon’s PED suspension. Gordon will be back later this season. If Stanton turns it around, this team has legitimate postseason aspirations. In fact, I’d bet that if Giancarlo was hitting around .250, the Marlins might already be sitting in a Wild Card spot. Miami shouldn’t be sweating the struggles of their superstar for now. If confirmation of injury crops up, though, Marlins fans would then be allowed to justifiably panic. There’s a lot of unknowns that are contributing to this disappointment; hopefully baseball fans will get some clarity soon.
The Brewers have had a fair amount of pleasant surprises this year. Jonathan Villar has been one of the best hitters in the National League. Chris Carter, Jonathan Lucroy, and even Aaron Hill to a degree, have had bounce back seasons. Ryan Braun is still elite and Scooter Gennett is still a nice stopgap option at second base. Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies, and Junior Guerra have led a shockingly competent starting staff and the bullpen has sneakily been very good in Milwaukee.
For the Brewers, 2016 has been a surprisingly good rebuilding year. Unfortunately, one of the building blocks for the team’s future has yet to take off. Domingo Santana has a minor league track record that suggests he should have 30 home run power at the major league level. Yet, here he is stuck at four in mid-June. He’s still got good plate discipline and a series of injuries have limited Santana all year. In a good hitters park, especially for homers, the Brewers should still rightly hope for more out of their young right fielder.
He’s not in danger of demotion, he’ll be given plenty of time to rehab his current elbow injury, and he’s likely to find a rhythm in the second half. But Brewers fans should still be disappointed in what they’ve gotten out of the top prospect in last year’s Carlos Gomez trade. Then again, Houston hasn’t been overwhelmed with their side of the deal either.
Minnesota Twins – Brian Dozier (.227 BA/.325 OBP/.694 OPS)
You want to put Byron Buxton in this spot? Be my guest. He’s failed (again) to make adjustments in the big leagues this year. But I’m more saddened by Brian Dozier’s first half.
Ignore the batting average for Dozier. He’s never going to hit for a high average. Disregard the on-base percentage. He’s not a huge walker. Instead, focus on the power production. Dozier hit 28 home runs last year as the Twins made a surprising Wild Card push. This year, Dozier has just 7 bombs. Extrapolate that pace over a full season and Dozier is only going to hit 17 homers this year. That’s quite the decline.
Dozier has just 19 extra base hits this year, compared to the 71 he had last season. While 2015 was arguably just Dozier playing a little above his true talent, there’s still no explaining this sharp of a decline at 29 years old. The Twins have fallen back into the AL cellar after a 2015 full of optimism and Dozier’s struggles are a big reason why. Twins fans should be disappointed with the team as a whole, but Dozier more so than youngsters like Buxton and Miguel Sano.
New York Mets – Travis d’Arnaud (.196 BA/.288 OBP/.549 OPS)
Okay, this one is all about injury. I’m breaking my own rule and penalizing a guy for his injuries. d’Arnaud is a special case.
Yes, Travis hasn’t been good in the limited time he’s spent with the Mets this season, but that’s not why he’s disappointing. No, Mets fans should be disappointed in the sheer fact that they may never see a healthy d’Arnaud. In 2014, the young catcher appeared in a career high 108 games. He’s played in 111 in 2013, 2015, and 2016 combined.
d’Arnaud has all the talent necessary to become one of the best hitting backstops in all of baseball. However, if he can’t stay healthy, there’s little reason for Mets faithful to have much faith in their catching. This was supposed to be the bounce back year after an injury ravaged 2015. Instead, he’s fallen victim to more of the same. New York fans should be disappointed in their catcher, even if the causality is no fault of d’Arnaud.
(Also, I didn’t forget about Matt Harvey. I’m just prematurely buying into his recent performance)
New York Yankees – Luis Severino (7.46 ERA/1.69 WHIP/.327 BAA)
At the beginning of the year, if you told me that Luis Severino and CC Sabathia would have 2.20 and 7.46 ERAs respectively in mid-June and Sabathia had already been kicked out of the rotation, I would’ve believed it. Instead, those situations have been entirely flipped and Luis Severino no longer looks like a future Yankee ace.
Yankees fans probably had their expectations for the young right-hander set too high at the beginning of the season. After all, he didn’t pitch a bunch down the stretch last year and is still a young pitcher prone to control problems. People should have expected Severino to experience some turbulence in his first full season in the Bronx.
On the other hand, nobody should have predicted a straight demotion for the youngster. Still, to think that he’d post a 2.89 ERA (or anything close to it) over his first full season was foolish. He’ll get better and eventually make a return to the Yankee rotation at some point this year. Injury and heightened expectations make Severino’s season look more disappointing that it should actually be regarded. He’s just a young guy that needs to make adjustments. That’s all.
Oakland Athletics – Sean Manaea (6.02 ERA/1.44 WHIP/.282 BAA)
Oh look, another young pitcher who’s minor league stats made him out to be more than his actual talent level indicates.
Yeah, Manaea should probably have better strikeout numbers at the major league level. Once he figures out how to miss major league bats, I envision all of his numbers decreasing drastically. His success is dependent on swing-and-misses. Like most youngsters, he needs to harness his control to get more big league hitters to bite.
Don’t forget that Manaea probably wasn’t intended to be in Oakland’s rotation until around the All-Star break this year. Injuries to the Athletics staff forced his promotion and Oakland ideally would have liked to keep Manaea in Triple-A for at least another two months. Quick promotions always excite fans, but Oakland faithful shouldn’t have expected Manaea to be a rotation fixture right out of the gate. He’s got a lot of improvements to make and needs to be afforded patience.
Philadelphia Phillies – Maikel Franco (.243 BA/.289 OBP/.710 OPS)
Hitting nine home runs in Spring Training is a good way to boost your stock. By the end of March, people were starting to compare Franco to other young sluggers like Miguel Sano and even Kris Bryant. When you’re garnering those comparisons and you’re the guy on a rebuilding team, the media is going to put extra pressure on you to succeed.
Were it not for his torrid spring, I’d probably not be so disappointed with Franco’s numbers. He’s got eleven home runs and is hitting .243. Those are numbers, before Spring Training, that wouldn’t have seemed surprising for Franco to have in mid-June. However, watching a guy hit nine home runs in a month can raise expectations a bit.
Realistically, Phillies fans shouldn’t have expected Franco to be an offensive monster in 2016. That’s where the bar was set, though, and by all accounts, he’s been a letdown. He’s a fine young player and I expect his batting average to improve as the season wears on, but comparing him to Kris Bryant was ridiculous from the outset.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Francisco Liriano (5.03 ERA/1.62 WHIP/.263 BAA)
Francisco Liriano is prone to the occasional abysmal start. He’s never been a good control guy, even under the tutelage of pitching wizard Ray Searage, and his wild tendencies can lead to poor outings. Unfortunately, 2016 has been basically one horrible Liriano start extrapolated over an entire season.
The pitching in Pittsburgh was predicted to be a problem coming out of Spring Training. Behind ace righty, Gerrit Cole, the Bucs would be trotting out Jonathon Niese, Jeff Locke, and Juan Nicasio. Since February, Pirates fans have been clamoring for their top prospects, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, to pitch at the major league level in place of one of their bottom-of-the-rotation starters. Sadly, midway through the season, I’d guess there are some in Pittsburgh that might rather see Liriano in the bullpen over the likes of Locke or Niese.
Liriano hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.38 since coming to Pittsburgh. He seemed dependable coming into 2016. That hasn’t been the case. Instead, he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the National League and has given up a ridiculous 46 walks in 76.1 innings. The control has been a constant problem, but it’s been amplified this season and has forced the “huge disappointment” tag upon the wild lefty.
San Diego Padres – Matt Kemp (.258 BA/.271 OBP/.747 OPS)
For Kemp, the letdown comes as a result of his cratering on-base skills. He’s a full 70 points below his career average in terms of OBP. He has 7 walks all season. He’s known as the most dangerous hitter in San Diego’s poor lineup, but he sure doesn’t look the part.
The problem is not with the production. San Diego could care less about how their offense performs this season. I suppose they’re trying to rebuild and have to be aware of their non-competitive state this season. But Kemp was supposed to build his trade value this year. He was supposed to bounce back from 2015, not continue his slide into irrelevancy. He was supposed to put up enough value that the Padres wouldn’t be forced to eat most of his contract in any potential deal. Instead, I doubt any team is looking at Matt Kemp as a trade deadline priority.
Matt Kemp needs to start taking a walk every now and then. He’s no longer a star, but that doesn’t mean he should look disengaged as often as he does. I’m not even disappointed so much with the production, I’m just disappointed with his demeanor on the field.
San Francisco Giants – Matt Duffy (.248 BA/.310 OBP/.660 OPS)
It’s just the sophomore slump, right?
Matt Duffy seemed like he was playing over his head pretty much all of 2015. Never a top prospect, the expectations were fairly low for Duffy. Yet, when Pablo Sandoval abandoned the Giants to sign with Boston, Matt Duffy was called upon to handle third base at the major league level and simply took off, hitting .295 in his incredible rookie season.
In reality, this is another case of the expectations being raised for a player based on an outlier. Sure, Duffy’s outlier was an entire season, but Giants fans shouldn’t have expected All-Star production perennially out of their third baseman. His approach is still solid this year. He’s sporting a paltry .277 BABIP currently that is bound to recover. As his luck improves, the perception of Duffy amongst dissatisfied Giants fans is sure to brighten. Until then, however, Duffy’s a bum and ruining the Giants’ chances at another even year championship. That’s just how the world works.
Seattle Mariners – Nori Aoki (.244 BA/.322 OBP/.637 OPS)
Yeah, I’m having trouble indicating a disappointment on the Mariners roster. Felix was too good when healthy to be considered for the spot. Taijuan Walker’s stellar April is enough to forgive a harsh May. Hisashi Iwakuma has still been a good pitcher and the expectations for Wade Miley had to be pretty low to begin with. Throw in the notion that the offense, top to bottom, is performing at their peak and it’s hard to find a letdown on this team.
However, for the sake of the article, I’m going to point out Aoki’s drop in production. Boasting a slash line that is across the board lower than his career averages, Aoki has been merely “okay” in left field for Seattle. His strikeout rate is on the rise and he’s been terrible on the base paths (4 for 11 on stolen base attempts) for the Mariners. If he were still leading off for the team, I’d have a much bigger problem with his complete decline in production. Hitting ninth, I’m merely a little aggravated that he’s a bit of a weak link in an otherwise strong lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals – Randal Grichuk (.206 BA/.276 OBP/.668 OPS)
The Cardinals lineup is really good. They’ve scored more runs than every team, save the juggernaut Red Sox. They balance platoons like no other and have several really good hitters that simply put the ball in play. However, Randal Grichuk has been hugely disappointing for Redbirds fans.
It’s not the batting average or on-base skills that drive dissatisfaction with the center fielder’s production. Rather it’s the absence of power, his primo calling card. After hitting 17 home runs in limited playing time last season, there was optimism that Grichuk might become the first Cardinal to reach 30 bombs since Carlos Beltran in 2012. Instead he’s stuck on eight home runs and was demoted to Triple-A in favor of recently converted outfielder, Kolten Wong. Even if Grichuk does return to the majors in short order, as long as Wong can hit, it’s likely Grichuk winds up on the wrong side of a center field platoon.
Simply put, Randal Grichuk has been a major letdown for a team that had high hopes. He’s still got time and all it would take to get his starting gig back is a hot streak. Until that happens though, don’t expect to see Grichuk making a difference in Busch Stadium any time soon.
Tampa Bay Rays – Corey Dickerson (.204/.254/.715)
I told you that the other side of the Jake McGee trade would make it onto this list. Well, here we are.
It’s easy to chalk Dickerson’s struggles up to the “Coors Field factor.” After all, Colorado is the best hitting environment in baseball, while the Trop in Tampa Bay is one of the more extreme pitcher-friendly parks. Even with the park factors, Dickerson should still have the talent to hit around .250. More importantly, his power is far more than just a product of Coors. After all, he’s already cranked 12 home runs with the Rays. Really, Dickerson hasn’t so much struggled as been a product of his manager’s usage.
He rarely faces lefties on his new team and is almost strictly used as a designated hitter. Right away his plate appearances are minimized. Throw in the fact that he’s been consistently bumped down the Rays order in favor of hotter hitters, and he’s no longer receiving as many plate appearances as he should. Also his BABIP is an unbelievably low .216. He’s not incredibly fast, but even Albert Pujols can sustain a BABIP higher than that. Dickerson has no doubt been a disappointment for his new team, but all the signs indicate improvement is eminent and health should be the only concern with Dickerson in Tampa Bay.
Texas Rangers – Prince Fielder (.199 BA/.269 OBP/.580 OPS)
How Prince Fielder has declined so rapidly is beyond comprehension. He went from a .305 hitter with an .841 OPS to batting below the Mendoza Line and posting an OPS unbefitting of most catchers. At this point, the competitive Rangers have to be close to benching Fielder for more productive players, like Jurickson Profar.
Last year was a mirage. There was a ton of luck that went into Fielder hitting above .300. More reasonably, the Rangers should have expected an average around .250 this season and been pleasantly surprised with anything extra. A .199 average, however, is unbelievably bad and he’s not making up for it in other areas of the game. His power has disappeared, with just 5 home runs to his credit. He’s not a threat on the base paths and rarely plays the field anymore. At some point, Jeff Banister and the Rangers need to give Fielder a break, if only to clear his head.
The Rangers are currently the best team in the American League. If Fielder can return to even a semblance of last year’s glory, Texas fans would be over the moon. Until then, he’s the saddest, most disappointing story in the major leagues.
Toronto Blue Jays – Marcus Stroman (4.76 ERA/1.33 WHIP/.267 BAA)
Troy Tulowitzki makes a strong case for this spot. I mean, a REALLY strong case.
However, I want to give the honor to Marcus Stroman, a guy who was given dark horse Cy Young odds at the beginning of the year. A guy who was garnering comparisons to Pedro Martinez, despite their diminutive size being the only common factor. A guy who Toronto fans expected would cruise through the American League and post an ERA around 3.00, or even lower.
Any Toronto fan who expected those ridiculous accomplishments for this year has been fooled by Stroman’s charm and magnetism. Yes, he was stellar upon returning from a torn ACL last season. However, that was an extremely small sample size that should have never been taken as an indicator of his true talent level. In reality, Stroman is a solid pitcher that should post a career ERA hovering around 3.50 when all is said and done.
Notice, that does mean that Stroman should be much better this year, and I expect him to be. His ERA is inflated beyond belief because he’s been prone to bad outings against really good offenses. The match-ups haven’t been overly kind to Stroman and his numbers have suffered as a result. He’s flashed brilliance this year, and I’d imagine that he’ll continue to whittle down his numbers as the season progresses. Still, he pitches in the AL East against a few really good offenses in a bunch of environments that favor hitters. Expecting greatness was overly optimistic and the driving force behind his “disappointing” results. They aren’t the expected numbers, even from reasonable fans, but they don’t spell disaster either.
Washington Nationals – Ben Revere (.207 BA/.259 OBP/.535 OPS)
I really want to put Bryce Harper in this spot. You have no idea how much I’d love to write about Harper’s “disappointing” numbers.
Alas, Ben Revere’s first half has simply been too disastrous to ignore.
Expected to be the everyday leadoff man in Washington, bat .300, steal 30 bases, and score a bunch of runs, Ben Revere has basically failed across the board. For one, he’s pretty much in a platoon situation with Michael Taylor in center field and only benefits from being the lefty. Also, the batting average is ridiculously far off from his career .290 mark. He’s only accumulated six stolen bases throughout the first two and a half months in Washington, while scoring just nineteen runs. With Jonathan Papelbon currently on the disabled list, I’d bet a fair amount of Nationals fans are wishing they had never traded Drew Storen for Revere.
However, I want to point out one thing when evaluating Revere’s lack of success: a .223 BABIP. For a guy that makes a considerable amount of contact and has elite speed, the fact that his BABIP is nearly 100 points lower than his career average hints that correction will come, and it will come in a firestorm of singles. Once he starts getting on base at a considerable clip again, the runs and stolen bases should come. Ben Revere is not an offensive superstar, but he’s exactly the kind of player the Nationals need. He surely won’t disappoint much longer.
Here’s some motivation for everyone that made this distinguished list
Who knows what should actually be taken from this look at baseball’s first half black sheep. All I know is there’s a bunch of players that need to figure it out before the scorn of their fanbases rip them to shreds.
The Red Sox may have a few emerging stars on the roster. But the Laser Show is still alive and kicking.
Want to look at an offense with plenty of terrific storylines this season? Look no further than the Boston Red Sox.
23 year-old right fielder, Mookie Betts is on pace for 150 runs, 125 RBIs, 25 stolen bases, and 40 home runs, all while batting .289. That’s absolutely freaking insane!
Xander Bogaerts, the phenom shortstop, recently had a 26-game hitting streak snapped. Nevertheless, he’s leading the American League in batting average after finishing second for the batting title last season. He’s also second in the AL in runs scored and tenth in OPS. Oh yeah, he’s also still 23 years old. Total stud.
Jackie Bradley, Jr. finally seems to have figured out major league pitching and looks like a true star. Despite losing his 29-game hitting streak, he’s still batting .324 and has the second highest OPS in the American League. The breakout, by all accounts, is legit.
And, of course, David Ortiz is having the best season of his career to this point. At 40 years old, Big Papi is currently leading the AL in RBIs, SLG, and OPS. He’s also third in batting average and home runs. His on-pace stats are equally ridiculous (45 HR/71 2B/151 RBIs), and he’s set to easily surpass the best numbers for any player EVER over 40 years old. If this really is the retirement tour for Ortiz, it’s the most impressive way any player has ever went out.
#NeverRetire
With all the incredible performances up-and-down the Red Sox lineup, the Laser Show has gotten lost in the shuffle.
Hitting second in the best offense in the majors, Dustin Pedroia is on pace for a 200-hit season and prepped to easily surpass 100 runs scored. He’s currently tracking towards just his second 20-home run season and first since 2011. His OPS is also the highest it’s been since ’11. He hasn’t finished a season with a batting average this high since his MVP season in 2008. By all accounts, Dustin Pedroia is prepped to have one of the best seasons of his terrific career.
And nobody cares.
“Come on!”
I’m not proposing that the national media needs to ignore the feats of Betts, Bogaerts, or Big Papi in favor of Pedroia. I’m just saying they need to give credit to an incredible career resurrection. The pundits wanted to write Pedroia off after two injury plagued seasons. Sure, the injury risk is still present, especially with a player that dives and lunges as often as Dustin, but unless he gets hurt again, we need to reinsert Pedroia into the ranks of elite second basemen.
Leading all second basemen in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR, it’s clear Pedroia is still the best defensive second basemen in the league. In fact, his numbers indicate that he’s one of the best defensive players in the entire league, at 20th in DRS and 11th in UZR. Only two middle infielders have better numbers in both categories (Brandon Crawford of the Giants and Nick Ahmed of the Diamondbacks). The defense has never been a question, but it’s worth noting that the injuries haven’t robbed any of his talent with the glove.
Yeah, he’s still alright at that whole “defense” thing
Pedroia’s WAR may be the fourth highest on his own team, but going off WAR alone (which is flawed, I know) Dustin has been as valuable as Bryce Harper this season. Only four second basemen currently have a higher WAR than Pedey: Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Ben Zobrist, and Daniel Murphy. That’s some pretty good company. And of that group, it’s no surprise that Pedroia is far and away the best defender of the bunch.
Dustin Pedroia will never be an MVP-caliber player again. With Altuve and Cano in the American League, I’m not even sure Pedroia is deserving of an All-Star spot this season. But he’s absolutely deserving of respect, even if he’s not making the headlines out of Boston. The Laser Show has absolutely still got it.
The San Diego Padres fancied themselves a contender. They dreamed big and really believed in themselves. Now it’s time to face the consequences for being foolishly optimistic.
James Shields is now a member of the Chicago White Sox.
Now they’re in the midst of the worst situation in baseball. After mortgaging the farm system to contend, the Padres are sitting in a baseball purgatory. It’s too late to sell off the pieces they never should have acquired. Teams like the Braves, Reds, and Brewers have approached their respective rebuilds with mostly savvy moves. The Padres have done the opposite.
Now, you have to commend the Padres for their efforts. In a division dominated by the Giants-Dodgers rivalry, San Diego legitimately felt that they might have an opportunity to wedge themselves into the NL West discussion. For a team that hasn’t been relevant seemingly since Bon Jovi was a real rockstar and not a fixture of DirecTV commercials, a bold, rushed rebuild wasn’t a ridiculous idea. After all, we’re basically watching a less extreme version of the 2015 Padres crash-and-burn in Arizona this year.
I will never ridicule a front office for making a calculated risk. James Shields could easily turn into a home-run allowing mess for the White Sox. But his career numbers suggest that he should, in theory, be a solid improvement on Miguel Gonzalez or Mat Latos. The White Sox made a premeditated gamble and minimized the potential loss. Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis, Jr. aren’t likely to become All-Star talents at the major league level. There’s still the possibility that Shields can deliver a sub-3.00 ERA stretch and pitch an above-average four months. For the White Sox, this trade represents devotion to a hot start and a necessary risk in order to make their contention legitimate. For the Padres, this trade represents the end of a miserably executed and expensive rebuild that turned into a nightmare for the San Diego front office.
Padres fans when they have to start ANOTHER rebuild
So let’s break down exactly how bad San Diego General Manager A.J. Preller butchered the Padres and what they can do to get out of the most unenviable position in baseball.
The first move of the fateful 2015 rebuild might be the best representation of the low-risk mess the Padres turned into. Trading away Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland, and Zach Eflin, the Padres acquired Matt Kemp and Tim Federowicz from the Los Angeles Dodgers. I still want to call this trade a win for the Padres. Grandal is the notable loss to the Padres, but he would have just been blocking top prospect Austin Hedges if he were still in San Diego. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp has been unspectacularly productive in a Padres uniform. Yes, his OBP is currently sitting at an unsightly .249, but people are quick to forget that he had a 100-RBI season last year in an offense that, by all accounts, underachieved immensely.
Matt Kemp hasn’t been the MVP candidate that he once was, but Padres fans would have been wrong to expect that from the aging, oft-injured outfielder. In actuality, Kemp is a slugger in a traditionally ill-equipped park to suit his eroding skills. Throw in the fact that his contract runs through 2019 paying him $21.75M a year and Kemp accurately encompasses the short-sighted gamble that Preller made prior to 2015.
See, even Matt Kemp himself agrees with my point
Remember how I said that Grandal would have just been blocking top prospect Austin Hedges’s way to the majors. Well, the Padres apparently noticed they had an opening for their young catcher and knew they couldn’t just leave it that way. So the Padres did something about it, trading away Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez for Derek Norris and Seth Striech. While R.J. Alvarez wasn’t a huge blow to the Padres, Jesse Hahn was a fairly well-regarded young starter. Meanwhile, Striech has yet to reach the majors and Derek Norris is hitting .198 for the Padres.
Again, I understand the logic behind this deal for San Diego. Derek Norris was coming off an All-Star season in Oakland and was just 26 years old. Sure, they liked Hedges back then, but if Norris could repeat his 2014 average and crank double-digit homers annually for the Padres, they’d worry about the prospect later. Sadly, that amount of optimism was unfounded. Norris’s 2014 was an aberration and while’s he’s not as bad as his 2016 numbers would suggest, anything more than 2015’s .250 batting average and 14 home runs would have been surprising.
Meanwhile, Jesse Hahn has flashed major league potential in Oakland. His strikeout numbers have cratered since leaving Petco Park, and the Athletics have been hesitant to commit to Hahn at the major league level. Regardless, his career could still wind up being that of a solid #3 starter at the major leagues. I don’t know that Norris won’t have the more valuable career, but his time in San Diego is clearly already overlong and now the Padres will likely struggle to find a team willing to give up much for a struggling backstop. Catcher is an abysmal position and Norris’s offensive game might actually be above-average this season. At this point, though, Preller needs to trade Norris for someone better than Hahn or this will go down as another failed move in his 2015 tire fire.
Oh, look! The Padres!
Now let’s not act like every move Preller has made in San Diego was a total failure. One move really stands out, in all honesty, as a smashing success.
Getting Wil Myers for (essentially) Rene Rivera was A.J. Preller robbing the Rays blind. If given the opportunity, I’m sure the offensively-challenged Rays would want their young outfielder back. Hitting .270 with 8 home runs thus far, the former AL Rookie of the Year seems to finally be returning to the player that excited Rays fans back in 2013. The injury concerns are still present, but shifting to first base in San Diego might help mitigate this risk. Nobody is looking at Myers as a future MVP candidate, but Padres fans should be excited to have him at first base in the longterm, especially for nothing but a backup catcher that only has 42 plate appearances in 2016.
Well, it was nice to live in a world where San Diego made a smart move, even if it was just for a paragraph in a hypothetical rewrite of history. Oh well, back to the bleak reality.
The perception of Justin Upton among fans doesn’t accurately mirror his actual value. There’s only one word to describe Upton’s 2016:
That’s right, Chuck! Still, his track record suggests that he should be a 20 homer/20 stolen base threat with an acceptable batting average and ordinary outfield defense. That’s exactly what Justin Upton was in San Diego (26 HR/19 SB). What’s the problem? Preller and the Padres traded a package befitting a perennial All-Star for one of the most consistently inconsistent players in the majors. It’s no Shelby Miller-for-Everything in the Diamondbacks system, but it was still enough of an overpay to place quite a bit of pressure on Upton.
Mallex Smith and Jace Peterson were the headliners for J-Up. In a vacuum, that’s a fair return. For an impending free agent, however, that looks somewhat steep. And now, considering the Padres’ refusal to invest in Upton over the long term, it only amplifies the failure of the 2015 San Diego Pathetics.
Any San Diego fan that’s read this far
But that was not the last trade that Preller felt compelled to make with the Braves.
Craig Kimbrel’s talents were wasted on a bad Padres team and it says a lot that the Upton formerly known as B.J. turned out to be primed for the best stint in San Diego out of Kate’s two brothers. In all seriousness, A.J. Preller made this move when he thought the team was going to be extremely competitive in the NL West. In context, it made sense. While Melvin Upton Jr. has, against all odds, reinvigorated his career in San Diego, he’s nothing more than another trade chip at this point.
C’mon teams, maybe Melvin Upton is now Bo Jackson!
Toss in the Shields overpay and it’s clear that Preller’s bold moves served only to set the Padres organization back.
However, in the 2016 offseason, Preller recognized his failure and began to restart the Padres rebuild. Trading away Craig Kimbrel was a masterful move. Garnering two top prospects for a closer was almost unbelievable. Getting rid of Joaquin Benoit was another step in accepting defeat; non-competitive teams absolutely do not need good bullpens. Preller and the Padres recognized that in 2016 they were going to be among the non-competitive teams.
(Okay, so they signed Alexei Ramirez to play shortstop. Nobody’s perfect)
Now, the true test for the Padres begins. They’re going to have to get creative and they’re going to swallow a lot of money, but selling off and committing to many years in rebuild mode is the correct move for the Padres. A.J. Preller is a competitor and I understand that it’s hard to give in, but it’s time to fold on this hand and come back to the table of competition with more chips next time.
So to Mr. Preller, I wish you and your team good luck on the rebuild. I hope that some team is desperate enough to think Melvin Upton’s resurgence is built to last. I hope the Rangers come calling and offer up a decent deal to take Derek Norris off your hands. I hope you recognize that there’s no use keeping players like Yangervis Solarte and Alexei Ramirez around. I’d wish you luck trading Matt Kemp, but you’re probably stuck with that burden. And lastly, I hope Tyson Ross, Drew Pomeranz, and Andrew Cashner bring back a sizable haul when each is inevitably traded (the homer in me wants the Red Sox to pay the price for Ross and/or Pomeranz. Please give them a call).
And to James Shields, your time in San Diego will not be forgotten. Well, at least for another year or so.
The 2010s have been hard on Philadelphia sports fans. Are things about to get better?
Here’s a serious question: Does the city of Philadelphia get to celebrate a professional sports championship within the next decade?
It’s been nearly eight years since Philadelphia last celebrated a championship for any of their teams. Eight years since Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley led the Phillies to a title. In that time, Rollins has been forced to take a minor league contract before even making the White Sox, Utley has become the most hated baseball player in New York (not that they ever really liked him there), and Ryan Howard is a player that Phillies fans don’t even want on the team anymore. It’s been a remarkably swift fall from grace.
Still, eight years isn’t a huge World Series drought by any stretch of the imagination. 1983 was the last time the 76ers won the NBA Finals. You have to go all the way back to 1975 to find the last time the Flyers hoisted the Cup. And the Eagles are still without a championship in the Super Bowl era. By and large, it sucks to be a Philadelphia sports fan.
Accurate representation of Philly fans before Eagles games
But fear not, for optimism should be abound in the City of Brotherly Love!
The 76ers and Phillies both have the number one overall pick in their respective drafts. The Eagles have already drafted with the second pick in the NFL draft. Busts happen, but given three shots at premier talent, Philadelphia is bound to stumble across a star in the 2016 rookie class.
With seemingly better days ahead, let’s breakdown where each Philadelphia team is headed.
The Eagles
Carson Wentz! Carson Wentz!
Ok, so the North Dakota State prospect is still a relative unknown. But if Wentz isn’t ready to take the reigns in his first season the Eagles can just turn to Sam Bradf… Oh. Yeah, Wentz better be ready this year.
In recent history, it would be fair to say the Eagles have been the most successful franchise in Philadelphia. That says more about how low the bar for success is in Philadelphia, sadly. But the Eagles still have talent on their team. Malcolm Jenkins and Fletcher Cox are solid building blocks on defense. Jordan Matthews is a really good receiver and the Eagles offensive line, with Lane Johnson and Jason Peters, is still one of the best in the NFL. The Eagles could easily be a playoff team in 2016. On paper, Philadelphia matches up favorably with the rest of the cluttered NFC East, even if Carson Wentz isn’t ready to start at the NFL level.
Jordan Matthews should do this all the time, IMO
Football is a really volatile sport. Unless you have a truly generational star à la Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, it’s hard to stay competitive consistently in the NFL. As a result, predicting Super Bowl outcomes often hinges on the teams that have a clear Top 10-15 overall player somewhere on their roster. Von Miller in ’15. Brady in ’14. Kam Chancellor in ’13. Joe Flacco in ’12 (wait, he’s not even elite…). Having a great player makes winning big games so much easier.
If Carson Wentz is the next Andrew Luck, the Eagles are absolutely in a position to be a Super Bowl contender at some point in the next ten years. But that’s a big “if.”
The Flyers
If the Eagles have experienced the most success in recent years, the Flyers aren’t far behind. The Flyers actually made the playoffs this year, after all. I only give the edge to the Eagles because eight teams make the Stanley Cup playoffs, while just six get to play past Week 17 in the NFL. Regardless, both have been competent professional teams, even if the Philadelphia faithful would tell you differently.
The Flyers future is perhaps the most certain of the major sports teams in Philadelphia. The Flyers already have legitimate star players. Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, and Jakub Voracek are in their primes. The blue line is on the young side and could potentially turn into one of the better in the league soon. If Shayne “Ghost” Gostisbehere can improve upon his outstanding rookie season, the Flyers have a scary-good difference maker in the back end. A talented minors system, especially in net and with defensemen, could help shore up the inconsistent defense in the near future.
Flyers fans are gonna love this “Ghost” guy for a LONG TIME
The key to contention in Philly will ultimately, however, come down to how their franchise player performs. Claude Giroux is 28 years old and entering his 9th NHL season. He’s been “the guy” in Philadelphia since 2010. And yet, the overall production has slipped over the last two seasons. He’s still been extremely productive, but he’s not been the more-than-a-point-per-game player recently. He’s still in his prime, so a bounceback is still very possible. But a repeat of his performance in the 2012 playoffs will be necessary to make a Stanley Cup run with his improving supporting cast. He registered just 1 point against the Capitals this year. That’s just not going to cut it from your captain.
In reality, the Philadelphia Flyers are sitting in that “one-guy-away” purgatory. There’s always free agency, and maybe the Flyers can stumble across another terrific forward with a middling draft pick, but until they can find one more dangerous scoring option, they’ll struggle maintaining consistency. The window is open right now and the Flyers need to make that go-for-broke move soon.
After all, they’re a historic franchise mired in a 41-year Stanley Cup drought. And that window might close quicker than they expect.
The 76ers
*fire emoji*
Ben Simmons. Nerlens Noel. Jahlil Okafor. Joel Embiid. Dario Saric.
If that’s the 76ers reality after the draft, fans have a right to be excited. Sure, it’s nothing but five big men. Also, only two of them have actually played in an NBA game. But the potential in that frontcourt is astounding.
Ben Simmons is 6’10” and looks like a point guard. The potential is real.
More importantly, the Sixers can trade their young guys for other budding stars. A swap of Jahlil Okafor for Marcus Smart still seems like a logical move for both teams involved. Or maybe the Sixers keep Okafor and trade Noel to a fellow high lottery team like the Nuggets in an effort to draft a guard like Buddy Hield or Jaylen Brown.
Another option: the Sixers pass on Simmons and draft Brandon Ingram instead. Suddenly, you’ve got a long wing scorer with potential to pair with a budding front court.
I don’t know who Joel Embiid is anymore. The All-NBA talent could still be there, but at this point you can’t assume Embiid is anything more than a second coming of Greg Oden. But maybe he’s finally healthy in 2016 and inserts himself into the Anthony Davis/Karl-Anthony Towns conversation. I don’t think, even healthy, that Embiid has that level of talent, but it’s been so long since I’ve watched him compete in live action that I can’t rule it out.
I don’t know if Joel can dominate in the paint, but he’s definitely got the moves
Sam Hinkie will not be forgotten, and the fruits of #TheProcess seem to be nearly ripe. Now that Sixers ownership seems to be intent on rapid improvement, the stockpiling not only of assets, but of cap space could quickly become an important part of thrusting this team into contention. The Sixers can afford to throw the max at restricted free agents like Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, and Jordan Clarkson this offseason in an attempt to pry away an intriguing young wing or two.
Whatever the new timeline is in Philly, the 76ers are in a great position to succeed in the very near future. With teams like Miami, Atlanta, Toronto, Chicago and even Cleveland to an extent built around volatile cores and veterans nearing the theoretical end of their primes, the Sixers could quickly transform into legitimate contenders.
The Phillies
At 26-24, the Phillies have already exceeded my wildest expectations this year. If you told me that Philadelphia would be above .500 on Memorial Day, I would’ve assumed Ryan Howard somehow found the Fountain of Youth. Instead, he’s hitting .154 and legitimately looks finished as a Major League Baseball player.
Yet, the Phillies are winning and it’s absolutely a result of a well-executed rebuild. And a lot of luck.
Aaron Nola is not a mirage. He really is a future ace. Vince Velasquez, once he loses the innings limit, is a true 200 strikeout threat in the very near future. Even Jerad Eickhoff is a legitimate MLB starter, though he’s more of a number four guy in a good rotation.
Yeah, this Nola kid is pretty alright
Now on offense, the Phillies have some work to do. Here’s some of their overall team rankings this year:
Batting Average – 11th in the National League, 24th Overall
Home Runs – 14th in the National League, 29th Overall
Runs Batted In – 15th in the National League, 30th Overall
Runs Scored – 14th in the National League, 29th Overall
OBP – 13th in the National League, 28th Overall
OPS – 13th in the National League, 28th Overall
I could go on, but I’m pretty sure I’ve made my point vividly clear. The Phillies are in desperate need of offensive upgrades at almost every position.
Tyler Goeddel, David Lough, and Peter Bourjos should not be seeing regular at-bats on a major league team. Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez are replacement-level middle infielders, at best. If you’re relying on one of them regularly, it’s barely acceptable, but both is borderline torture for Phillies fans. We already know that Ryan Howard shouldn’t even be a platoon bat at first base anymore. And Carlos Ruiz should give full time catching duties to Cameron Rupp, because at a point, being a cagey veteran doesn’t make up for being a mess at the plate.
The Phillies offense isn’t without encouraging signs of turnaround. Maikel Franco has potential to be a very good corner infielder. Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera has improved his plate discipline to the point where I hate watching his at-bats. It’s one thing to have a long routine when you’re swinging at everything, but when you’re seeing a ridiculously high amount of pitches per plate appearance, the at-bat can seem to just drag on.
J.P. Crawford should take over shortstop at some point this season, and I doubt outfielder Nick Williams will be far behind. Jorge Alfaro should even be the Phillies everyday catcher at some point in the next two years, assuming he shows improvement behind the plate.
The Phillies won’t be relying on the minor leagues when they want to improve their offense, however. With the Mets built around a core of aging veterans and the Nationals facing Bryce Harper’s 2018 free agency, the NL East could easily open up to the Phillies in the next two years. As soon as the Phillies feel their young core is developed, I expect huge investments in established major league hitters. The Phillies have money to spend.
Go ahead and make it rain, Phillies, because the near-future looks increasingly bright.
Phillies GM Matt Klentak’s pitch to free agents in 2017
On the whole, Philadelphia sports appears to be at a turning point. On one hand, the Eagles and Flyers seem like prime candidates to either tear things down and invest in a younger core or spend recklessly to pursue immediate improvements. On the other hand, long rebuilds for the 76ers and Phillies seem to be approaching their end. With savvy maneuvering, it seems apparent that Philadelphia fans might be celebrating the ultimate goal within the next decade. If I were a gambler, I’d put money on a Phillies World Series appearance in the next seven years. I might even invest a few bucks in a Sixers title within six years if Vegas deems that a near impossibility. I’m all-in on Philadelphia’s sports future.
Then again, I should probably try to avoid getting hopes up in Philly. After all, I’d hate to contribute to more disappointment.
On second thought, just wallow in the ‘Nova national title and stay pessimistic towards the Sixers and Eagles. Go with what you know.
Unintentional Talk 