I’m sad to see the 2016 Toronto Raptors’ season come to a close.
Sure, Cleveland only leads the series 2-1 and Toronto has at least two more games left in their playoff run. But if we’re being realistic, their season ended the second LeBron James started warmups in Quicken Loans Arena before Game 1.
There are few guarantees in the NBA (as the Thunder seem to be proving with their demolition of the Warriors last night), but LeBron James reaching the Finals falls under the category “Inevitable.” Seriously, Gerald Wallace and Amar’e Stoudemire were still All-Stars the last time James didn’t annihilate the rest of the Eastern Conference. Only one team has bested a LeBron-led team in the Conference Finals and that was a result of Herculean efforts from Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, and current Cavs coach Tyronn Lue (Your revisionist history won’t convince me that Dwight Howard was ever good). I’m sorry, but against a stacked Cavaliers team, the Raptors don’t stand a real chance of pulling off the upset.
Now if my pessimistic outlook for the Conference Finals outcome doesn’t please those in the 6ix, they really won’t like my next statement.
The Raptors aren’t going to be better next year.
I’m not saying the Raptors are going to be contending for the Number 1 pick next season. In fact, they’re probably still a playoff team next year. But 2013 Executive of the Year, Masai Ujiri has the most daunting task of his career in store come July.
The Raptors are not strapped for cash heading into the offseason. With the NBA’s salary cap projected to increase by roughly $19M this summer, the Raptors should have around $32M to spend on new acquisitions or retaining current players. It’s not the $60M+ that the Lakers will have to work with, but it’s enough to make a couple big moves.
The problem is the Raptors are going to need to make those moves to simply stay relevant in a rapidly improving Eastern Conference.
Toronto has six impending free agents. While players like Jason Thompson, James Johnson, and Luis Scola are easily replaceable, recouping the potentially lost talent in the other three will be no easy task.
Terrence Ross, a restricted free agent, is an underrated cog in the 56-win Raptors machine. Playing nearly 24 minutes per game and averaging just under 10 points, Ross is a useful bench piece for a contender. Also, being a career 37% shooter from behind the three-point line and clocking in at just 25 years old makes Ross a prime candidate for the classic overpay. I won’t be surprised when a team like the Nets or 76ers come forth with an offer sheet that makes Terrence Ross look like a future star (he’s not).
So what? The Raptors can match any offer and keep Ross regardless of the cost.
True, but the Raptors may have bigger needs than replacing a backup wing. Fresh off of a 26-rebound masterpiece in Game 3, Bismack Biyombo is about to get PAID. We can debate whether Biyombo is worth a contract upwards of $15M annually (probably not, IMO), but after a terrific playoff run, that’s a reasonable expectation for his cap hit next season.
Jonas Valanciunas is a terrific, underrated NBA center. If I was forced to choose, I take Jonas over Bismack every time. But a huge part of why this Raptors team was the winningest in franchise history is because they didn’t have to choose. For every minute that Valanciunas had to rest, Coach Casey could simply plug in one of the best backup centers in the game and suddenly have a game-changer on defense, easily offsetting his lack of scoring. Plus, when Valanciunas went down with an injury, the Raptors didn’t need to panic because Biyombo was a terrific next man up.
Now, the Raptors might need to worry. After missing 22 games this season and never playing more that 28.2 minutes per game, there are definite concerns about the durability of Jonas Valanciunas. A backup center is a necessity for every team, but a quality one is key for true championship competitors. The Warriors have Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli. The Spurs have Tim Duncan and David West. The Thunder have Enes Kanter and Steven Adams. Even the Miami Heat teams of yesteryear had Chris Bosh and Birdman (Chris Andersen was a quality gator hunter at least, and that’s valuable in Florida!). Jonas Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo are a contender-level center tandem. Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira are questionable at best.
Biyombo isn’t the biggest potential loss for the Raptors, though. All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan could open up a gaping hole in the backcourt for the Raptors this offseason.
Kyle Lowry, Valanciunas, DeMarre Carroll, and Patrick Patterson (AKA 2Pat) alone are an Eastern Conference playoff team. DeMar DeRozan is the difference between starting a series in Indiana and making the Pacers come to “Jurassic Park” for Game 1. The Raptors need DeRozan if they want to contend next year.
The problem for Toronto comes down to the money. Monta Ellis, a 30 year old two-guard who can’t consistently make threes, will earn $10M next season. DeRozan is undoubtably more talented than Ellis at this point, has a Dwyane Wade-like ability to draw fouls, and is only 26. Teams will be paying for his prime years when he signs a contract this offseason and if Biyombo is possibly worth $15M, DeRozan will undoubtably garner at least $20M a year and I wouldn’t be shocked if his contract nears $23-25M annually. A team like the Lakers (DeRozan’s hometown team) will throw a huge contract his way. Drake should offer to split DeRozan’s cost with Toronto ownership and make sure that the Raptors’ All-Star backcourt remains in tact, because DeMar is undoubtably worth more to Toronto than any other team.
With all of the free agency factors in mind, I want to be clear that I am not of the belief that the Raptors will be a bad team next year. I predict Toronto resigns DeRozan and settles for a cheaper backup big like Roy Hibbert (it’s sad how quickly the NBA left a 2-time All-Star behind). The Raptors have the resources to keep pace as a 50+ win team next season. And that’s great, because I love how passionate Toronto fans are now that they have a successful team with excellent management to support. But Toronto probably can’t improve enough to be a true contender next season.
Danny Ainge and the Celtics seem preordained to bring in a true difference maker this offseason with their immense amount of cap space and surplus of trade chips (including the 3rd overall pick). Charlotte can shed Al Jefferson and refit their roster to suit Coach Clifford’s style of play. The Pacers and Heat have just enough resources to field dangerous, improved teams next year. And Cleveland won’t be going anywhere unless LeBron plans on abandoning “The Land.”
In an Eastern Conference that’s only improving, the Raptors seem like a team with limited opportunities to stay ahead of the pack. Toronto fans will still have a playoff team to support, but they should truly relish the 2016 Raptors. The View from the Six looks cloudy heading into July, but the present is providing the most exciting team Toronto has ever had the pleasure to support. Whether basketball season in Canada lasts just two or three more games, it’s been a fun ride watching the 2016 Raptors.
Also, what do I know? Raptors in 7 #WeTheNorth
Unintentional Talk 